THURSDAY 2.40 – GREAT ENDEAVOUR (12/1)

Although this will be Great Endeavour’s first attempt beyond handicap company, his current rating warrants an attempt at the top level and he will be at home around Cheltenham.

His record over fences here reads 162F10 and both wins have been achieved in major handicaps at around this trip – the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival in 2010 and the Paddy Power Gold Cup earlier this season.

Very much at home on good ground, he has been freshened up nicely after a busy autumn campaign.  He came close to achieving a notable double when getting to the front two out in the Hennessy at Newbury in November before his stamina gave out.  At his ideal trip and his favourite track, he looks under-rated by the bookies.

TUESDAY 1.30 – VULCANITE (each-way 20/1 general)

Good enough to compete at group race level on the flat, Vulcanite has taken well to his first season hurdling and looks an ideal sort for the fast pace this Festival opener usually provides.

He put up a fine debut performance when giving the more experienced Tetlami (another contender here) a real race at Kempton despite pulling very hard.  An easy winner of a weaker contest at Southwell next time, he was in front far too soon at Newbury on his last start, eventually finding Montbazon 7l too good.

I expect Paddy Brennan will ride a much more patient race this time to utilise his flat speed and Vulcanite might well settle better in a big field and strong pace.

WEDNESDAY 1.30 – HARRY THE VIKING (6/1 general)

The 4m chase is always one of my highlights of the week and in Harry The Viking, Alex Ferguson has major chances of landing his first Cheltenham Festival winner.

The 7yo  has done all his racing at 3m and beyond, winning his last four starts and the form of his narrow win at Doncaster last time has been boosted by the runner-up Ikorodu Road going on to win the Grimthorpe Chase.

By all accounts he is over a bout of coughing last month, and has been kept to racing on his favoured good ground he will get again here.  A horse that jumps and stays will always hold chances in this contest and he does both very well.

Festival top trainer – DAVID PIPE (33/1 general)

A value alternative to the usual Mullins/Nicholls battle for supremacy as top trainer must be David Pipe.  In addition to Great Endeavour, Pipe has a host of fine horses with serious chances this week.

Our Father and Salut Flo are among many contenders for the handicaps, whilst Grands Crus is for many people one of the week’s bankers in the RSA Chase.

With the likes of Dynaste, Kazlian, Poole Master and Balgarry to back up his leading lights, Pipe looks to have plenty enough chances to warrant a small wager even in what is purely a win only market.

12.05pm … and anything that isn’t nailed down at Leopardstown is being blown away. You can include racecards, owners’ and trainers’ badges and the flame of Mouse Morris’s lighter as it closes in on another Major (as in cigarette, not as in US Open or Masters or anything). If Mouse is giving them up for the new year, he only has three days left, so you can forgive him pretty easily. Then again, the form book says that that’s about 30 times the price of First Lieutenant winning the Topaz Fort Leney Chase. Best of luck Mouse.

12.44pm … One-nil to the punters. The Willie Mullins-trained Make Your Mark is in the process of so doing (easy one for the subs for tomorrow’s newspapers and for the duration of his career), winner of his only point-to-point, winner of his only bumper, and now dancer-inner in the two-and-a-half-mile maiden hurdle that opens Lexus day, the Madigans Maiden Hurdle (sponsor’s name check), a race that Mullins won last year with top notcher So Young.

There was never a sweat, there was no point at which the Gigginstown House horse did not travel like an odds-on shot, and he came clear of the useful-looking JP McManus horse Competitive Edge, who was, in turn, clear of the rest. The race was run in a time that was 10 seconds faster than the time in which it was run last season. Tells you that the winner is probably good, and that the ground is probably similar. Quotes of from 8/1 to 12/1 about the winner for the Neptune Hurdle tells you that the bookmakers agree with the former.

1.10pm … Must be good ground for sure, Star Of Aragon is after winning the novices’ handicap hurdle.

1.15pm … Last Instalment is fairly weak in the betting as the money comes for First Lieutenant. Back on better ground, back left-handed, Davy Russell’s choice, it is not difficult to see why he is the more fancied of the top two Gigginstown House horses, but the gap between 7/4 and 3/1 seems a little large.

1.35pm … The big worry with Last Instalment was about the ground. At his best on heavy, they always say about him, and his form backs that up to an extent, but you knew after they had jumped three fences that the ground probably wasn’t going to be an issue. He didn’t hold back, wasn’t minding himself, wasn’t feeling the ground. The Philip Fenton-trained gelding’s jumping was great, and he stayed on really well from the back of the final fence to record an impressive victory.

The fact that he put it in on this goodish ground means that Cheltenham is not as outlandish a thought as it was 20 minutes ago. General odds of 10/1 about him for the RSA Chase are interesting. The caveat is that Fenton says that he is not certain to run in it, that the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse is an alternative, but it has to be a major temptation.

2.10pm … It looked like Voler La Vedette had to stay to win the Woodies DIY Hurdle. Team Mullins, Shakervilz and Mourad, set out to make sure that it was a fair test over three miles, but stay she did, despite the market drift in the face of a weight of money for Mourad that forced him down from a morning price of 11/8 to an SP of 4/5. That’s two big bullets, two wins for Colm Murphy, after Big Zeb’s win yesterday. Just Quito De La Roque in the Lexus to go.

2.30pm … Reports emerging of bizarre market moves on Betfair in the Woodies DIY Christmas Hurdle, that Voler La Vedette was matched at 29 on the run-in (I think) for over one and a half million pounds when she should have been a 1.01 shot. The mystery will have to unravel itself with the passage of time. These mysteries usually do.

2.45pm … Rubi Light did everything right in the Lexus, Andrew Lynch did everything right, the horse jumped super and travelled well, and at no point through the race did he not look a likely winner. Even when Robbie Hennessy’s horse got in tight to the second last, he still looked to have most things under control as they approached the home turn. That was before you noticed that Synchronised was running on for AP pressure. They usually run on for AP pressure.

Ultimately, Synchronised was an impressive winner. You know that because he won by eight lengths. You don’t win a Grade 1 chase by eight lengths and not be impressive. The time was over three seconds slower than the time that Last Instalment clocked in the Fort Leney Chase, mind you, so that’s a bit of a worry initially, but they didn’t seem to go a great gallop early on, you could have grabbed one of those large table cloths from the Pavillion and thrown it over the lot of them as they passed the winning post on the first circuit, so further investigation of the splits will have to follow. That said, a slow gallop shouldn’t have suited Synchronised, a horse who had the stamina to win a Midlands National and a Welsh National on heavy ground.

It was an inspired decision by Jonjo O’Neill and AP McCoy and JP McManus to re-route Synchronised from this year’s Welsh National yesterday, for which he was a worthy ante post favourite, and run him here. Actually, it looked like the decision would not pay dividends when the weather didn’t comply, leaving the ground to come up unseasonably good(ish). That makes the performance all the more impressive.

JP and Jonjo didn’t really have a Gold Cup horse this morning. They may do now.

· For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com

Another very competitive race and also very difficult to find the winner of, but I like the market leader Poquelin. He was second in this last year and won the December Gold Cup this season in great style, and seems to be still improving.

Tartak is another high class performer in the field along with Kalahari King, who will love this trip and let’s not forget about last year’s winner Albertas Run.

It is a quality race and a wide open affair with not much between the first seven or eight in the market.

The favourite Poquelin though is the one for me and if he travels and jumps he won’t be beaten. His jumping can be dodgy sometimes and there is the fear that he might find one too good again, but I’m going to stick with him.

Kalahari King should run well for the Ferdy Murphy stable.

Selection: POQUELIN (11/4 general) Outsider: KALAHARI KING (5/1 General)

Another very competitive race and also very difficult to find the winner of, but I like the market leader Poquelin. He was second in this last year and won the December Gold Cup this season in great style, and seems to be still improving.

Tartak is another high class performer in the field along with Kalahari King, who will love this trip and let’s not forget about last year’s winner Albertas Run.

It is a quality race and a wide open affair with not much between the first seven or eight in the market.

The favourite Poquelin though is the one for me and if he travels and jumps he won’t be beaten. His jumping can be dodgy sometimes and there is the fear that he might find one too good again, but I’m going to stick with him.

Kalahari King should run well for the Ferdy Murphy stable.

Selection: POQUELIN (11/4 general) Outsider: KALAHARI KING (5/1 General)

It’s almost upon us and I for one cannot wait. The greatest racing festival in the world gets under way on Tuesday March 15. Some may ask, what about Aintree? What about Ascot? Or Glorious Goodwood? But there is nothing quite like Cheltenham.

The roar of the crowd when the tapes go up for the first race sends chills up your spine and the quality of racing over the next four days is second to none.

The first race – The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, is one of the best for many a year, as is the Arkle Trophy. The Champion Hurdle looks like being the best on paper for nearly 20 years and the most anticipated race of the whole meeting.

Future stars will surely emerge from races such as the RSA Chase and the Triumph Hurdle and on top of all that, we have a wide open Gold Cup to look forward to.

As for the trainers’ and jockeys’ titles, well, Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty have a strong chance of winning these with some superb runners in the top races including Long Run, Oscar Whisky, Aegean Dawn and Bobs Worth.

The Paul Nicholls’ and Ruby Walsh team will be there or thereabouts in all the top races as well. Willie Mullins will be a trainer to keep an eye this year as he brings a powerful team of horses across the Irish sea, including Hurricane Fly, Mourad, Mikael D’Haguenet and Zaidpour, not forgetting of course, his runners for the bumper, in which his record is superb.

Gordon Elliott (watch Gordon’s Cheltenham preview here) is another Irish trainer to keep an eye on, as he has a decent team this year, and jockeys Davy Russell and Paul Townend should have some good rides. All in all a cracking festival awaits us. Here’s a quick rundown on some of the top races.

DAY ONE
DAY TWO
DAY THREE
DAY FOUR

Always an exciting race, and a cracking way to start the festival. With a large quality field it’s extremely tough to find the winner of this. There are several in this with a big chance and Colin Tizzards’ Cue Card heads the market.

Last year’s Cheltenham bumper winner started the season well with two wins. Then he met Menorah in the International Hurdle and was outclassed, but back in Novice Company again he will be a force to be reckoned with.

He faces stiff opposition and almost half the field are capable of winning this. Nicky Henderson’s trio of Gibb River, Sprinter Sacre and Spirit Son are all in with a shout – as is Dermot Welds’ Endless Intrigue, Jimmy Quinn’s Recession Proof and Willie Mullins’ Zaidpour.

Al Ferof from the Paul Nicholls stable is a big danger to all and he should go close too, but the one I really like is Nicky Henderson’s Sprinter Sacre.

Although he’s not beaten much in the races he’s won, he looks very classy indeed. He pulls hard in his races and is screaming out for a fast pace, which he will get here and if I was Barry Geraghty, I would chose him out of the three runners for the stable.

The Irish have a great record in this race with past winners including the brilliant Istabraq and they have a strong contingent again this year with several chances.

Zaidpour looks above average to me and he could get the meeting off to a great start for the Emerald Isle.

Selection: SPRINTER SACRE (7/1 General) Outsider: ZAIDPOUR (10/1 General)

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A great race for watching and always packed with future stars. Nicky Henderson’s Finian’s Rainbow heads the market in this and rightly so.

The eight year old was a very smart hurdler and has taken to fences very well winning three in row, the most recent being the Kingmaker at Warwick.

Alan King’s Medermit rates the main danger and he ran in last year’s Champion Hurdle, finishing unplaced. He’s won two out of four over fences this season and, in my opinion is the class act of the race. He jumps and stays well and Alan King knows exactly what’s needed to win this.

With Finian’s Rainbow’s jumping still a question mark for me, I think Medermit’s class will shine through and he would be one of my bankers of the meeting.

The Irish challenge comes from Noel Meade’ Realt Dubh who has improved a lot this season and deserves to take his chance in this. Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has a great chance as well, with Ghizao, and he’s already won impressively over the course and distance.

Selection: MEDERMIT (4/1 General) Outsider: GHIZAO (9/2 General)

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Arguably the best race at the entire meeting and certainly the best Champion Hurdle line up we’ve had for years. Sadly last year’s winner Binocular will not return to defend his crown but we still have the highly talented Hurricane Fly as well as the unbeaten Peddlers Cross, the gutsy Menorah, the smart Oscar Whisky, not forgetting Khyber Kim and Dunguib.

It truly looks like a remarkable race on paper and I can’t wait to see how it turns out. Make sure you check out my runners and riders piece for this on the day of the race.

Selection: DUNGUIB (9/1 Paddy Power) Outsider: KHYBER KIM (14/1 General)

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One of the so called bankers of the meeting heads the market here in the shape of Time For Rupert.

Paul Webber’s stable star finished second in the World Hurdle last year behind Big Buck’s and he’s been impressive since switching to the larger obstacles, winning two decent chases this season, both at Cheltenham.

It’s hard to look beyond him as he seems to relish the Cheltenham hill finish but if anything does beat him, it could be the Willie Mullins trained Mikael D’Haguenet.

He has won at the festival previously over hurdles but has not taken to the larger obstacles too well, however, he is still highly talented and I think he’ll run a big race and go close.

Other contenders include Jessies Dream and Magnanimity from Ireland and Wymott from the Donald McCain stable, as well as Aiteen Thirtythree and Hells Bay who would be a good each way selection.

Overall it will take a good one to beat Time for Rupert.

Selection: TIME FOR RUPERT (5/2 General) Outsider: MIKAEL D’HAGUENET(16/1 Paddy Power)

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Always a thrilling spectacle, the Queen Mother Champion Chase is the highlight of day two and former winners Big Zeb and Master Minded return to try and win it again.

Both of them have not done much wrong this season and have been here before and got the T-shirt, but they are by no means flawless and their challengers include the very smart Woolcombe Folly and Somersby.

Woolcombe Folly is a serious player judging by his form this season as he’s been travelling and jumping well in his races and has a good turn of foot.

I’m still convinced Somersby needs a lot further than this and he could get run off his feet early, and stay on again late, like so many times this season.

The one I really like is Sizing Europe. He won last year’s Arkle and previous Arkle winners always do well in this. He should never have been tried over 3 miles this year and I hope this has not affected his way of racing. If the same horse as last year shows up, he would have a serious chance at a nice price.

Other Irish contenders include Captain Cee Bee and Golden Silver, and the latter of these would have a chance as he’s beaten Big Zeb already this season.

Selection: SIZING EUROPE (14/1 Generel) Outsider: WOOLCOMBE FOLLY (7/1 Ladbrokes)

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Over recent years this race has been very predictable. From the time of the brilliant Baracouda to the superb Inglis Drever, and now the indestructible Big Buck’s, there has always been a stayer way ahead of the rest.

Big Buck’s is looking for his third straight win and he will probably do it too, but there could be a sting in the tail from the current odds on favourite in the shape of Grand Crus.

Trained by the master of Pond House David Pipe, this six year old has exploded onto the scene this season with three stunning performances, winning each time and without coming off the bridle.

The quality of the races he’s won might be questionably but you can’t help being impressed by his performances. I wouldn’t rule out Willie Mullins’ Mourad either, as he clearly has ability and has progressed from last year.

Zaynar – for the Nicky Henderson / Barry Geraghty team is not without a chance either and Restless Harry could be a decent each way bet.

Make sure you check out my runners and riders piece for this on the day of the race.

Selection: MOURAD (10/1 Paddy Power) Outsider: ZAYNAR (16/1 Paddy Power)

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Another very competitive race and also very difficult to find the winner of, but I like the market leader Poquelin. He was second in this last year and won the December Gold Cup this season in great style, and seems to be still improving.

Other notable runners include Tranquil Sea and I will be amazed if he’s not there or thereabouts at the last flight with every chance of winning.

Tartak is another high class performer in the field along with Kalahari King, who will love this trip and let’s not forget about last year’s winner Albertas Run.

It is a quality race and a wide open affair with not much between the first seven or eight in the market.

I like the favourite Poquelin and if he travels and jumps he won’t be beaten. His jumping can be dodgy sometimes and I fear he might find one too good again, but I’m going to stick with him.

Kalahari King should run well for the Ferdy Murphy stable.

Selection: POQUELIN (4/1 general) Outsider: KALAHARI KING (10/1 General)

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This is probably my favourite race at Cheltenham and always produces a star.

Recent winners of this include Zaynar and Soldatino both trained by Nicky Henderson and it’s his horse, Grandouet that heads the market.

It’s a wide open affair and we could have an Irish winner this year in the shape of Unaccompanied. Dermot Weld’s four year old is unbeaten over hurdles and looked like a future star when winning a Grade One hurdle at Leopardstown last time out.

Paul Nicholls has three live chances in the shape of Brampour, Zarkander and Sam Winner and it’s the latter of these that I like.

His last run at Chepstow on bad ground should be forgotten. His two runs at Cheltenham in the early part of the season were electric and he’s another one of my Bankers of the meeting.

Alan King always has a good one for this and Smad Place looks the biggest danger to my selection.

Selection: SAM WINNER (10/1 General) Outsider: SMAD PLACE (12/1 General)

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Probably only second to the Grand National as the biggest National hunt race on the calendar and a host of past winners return again this year.

Last year’s winner Imperial Commander should go off favourite with other previous winners Kauto Star and Denman well fancied in the betting market.

Imperial Commander was not impressive in the Betfair Chase, and if you think about it, he doesn’t run great anywhere else except Cheltenham.

After the Betfair Chase it was reported that he‘d had a slight injury and would go straight to the Gold Cup so we know he will be fresh and well and I can’t see anything stopping him from winning back to back Gold Cups.

Denman and Kauto Star will run their usual honest race but age is catching up and they shouldn’t be good enough to trouble the favourite, although Kauto might still be a threat with Ruby Walsh back on board.

Other contenders include Midnight Chase and Long Run. Midnight Chase seems to like Cheltenham and will make it a fast run race but should not be good enough as I think he is just short of the top level.

Long Run is a huge danger to all but if you look at his two runs at Cheltenham they’re not that great. He slightly disappointed in last year’s RSA Chase and could only finish a well beaten third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup this season, so I’m not convinced he likes the track.

There is another interesting contender from Ireland in the shape of Pandorama. He was impressive when winning the Lexus in Ireland and looks like he stays all day long. I don’t like backing favourites so I’m going to have a small wager on Pandorama.

Selection: IMPERIAL COMMANDER ( 7/2 Paddy Power) Outsider: PANDORAMA (16/1 Paddy Power)

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NAPS / BANKERS:

Time for Rupert (RSA Chase)
Sam Winner (Triumph Hurdle)
Medermit (Arkle Trophy)
Dunguib (Champion Hurdle)
Imperial Commander (Gold Cup)

OTHER SELECTIONS:

Sprinter Scare – Zaidpour (Supreme Novices Hurdle)
Bobs Worth – Rock On Ruby (Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle)
Sizing Europe – Woolcombe Folly (Champion Chase)
Cheltenian – Ericht (Champion Bumper)
Aegean Dawn – Call the Police (Coral Cup)
Robison Collonges – Bouggler (Jewson Novices Chase)
Poquelin – Kalahari King (Ryanair Chase)
Mourad – Zaynar (World Hurdle)
Rivage D’Or – Swingkeel (Pertemps Handicap)
Bishopsfurze – Court In Motion (Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle)
Keki Buku – Nomecheki (Grand Annual Chase)
Cork All Star – Halcon Genelardais (Foxhunters Chase)
Snap Tie – Ronaldo Des Mottes (County Hurdle)

Recommended €1 Cheltenham Yankee – Stake (€11)

Medermit (Arkle Trophy)
Time for Rupert (RSA Chase)
Sam Winner (Triumph Hurdle)
Imperial Commander (Gold Cup)

GOOD LUCK TO ALL.

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I wouldn’t be going writing Kauto Star off yet. It’s amazing how sentiment swings on the back of one performance. Kauto The Invincible one minute, unbeatable in the King George, what price will he be for the Gold Cup when he wins it, I suppose it depends how impressive he is; washed up the next minute, retire him, stick him in a field where he can hang out with a couple of sheep until we can read about him having passed away peacefully in 16 years’ time.

If you thought he was a 4/1 shot for the Gold Cup on Saturday morning, then you should think that the 10/1 they are currently offering is value. To push him out that far on the back of one run, when there are reasons for believing that there is a big chance he just had an off-day (blood on his nose, the current form of the P Nicholls horses, never really travelling with his trademark verve), is a significant over-reaction.

Long Run is the new kid on the block, and boy is he a kid. Kauto Star had already run in 10 hurdle races and two novice chases before Long Run was born. It would be like Jimmy Connors playing Rafael Nadal.

The Henderson horse was fantastic, as was the amateur kid-lookalike on his back. He got the first fence wrong, but after that, it all went as smoothly as a smooth thing. Gold Cup next? Absolutely. All this Ryanair Chase talk was blown away by the surge that he showed between the third last and the second last at Kempton to put the race to bed, Kauto Star’s shuddering mistake at the second last serving only to swap the minor places around between him and Riverside Theatre.

There are a couple of glorious imponderables flitting around between Long Run and the Gold Cup. Like the track. He is 0-2 at Cheltenham, which compares unfavourably with his 2-2 record at Kempton. It is not conclusive, a sample size of four wouldn’t pass even Dr Nick’s requirements for statistical significance, but it does suggest that he may be at his best on a flat track, maybe going right-handed.

The way he jumped on Saturday does nothing to contradict that notion. He was long or spot on at nearly every fence. When he had to go short, like at the first fence and at the second fence down the back straight, he wasn’t convincing. It is possible to go long at every fence at Kempton – ref. Barton Bank, 1994 King George (well, almost every fence) – a flat track on which the pace is generally constant and at which you can eye up your fence from a long way away. It is more difficult at Cheltenham, up and down hills, inconsistent pace, you are probably going to have to go in deep and pop at a number of fences, and Long Run hasn’t convinced us that he can do that effectively yet.

That said, you can over-analyse these things. After the first of Long Run’s Cheltenham defeats, in the RSA Chase last March, Henderson said that he hadn’t been really happy with him for a little while in the lead up to the race, that he thought he had gone over the top. In the second, in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last November, it all may have happened a little too quickly for him, racing off a high weight over an inadequate trip. So there is a chance that the track thing is a red herring. That said, I suspect there is something in it.

There is nothing in the age thing, mind you. He is only six, and you will hear all this talk about no six-year-old having won the Gold Cup since Mill House. However, remarkably, only three six-year-olds have tried in the last 40 years – you suspect that they were busy hanging out in their cradles – and two of them were Gloria Victis, who might well have won had he not fallen in Looks Like Trouble’s Gold Cup in 2000, and The Fellow, beaten a short head by Garrison Savannah in 1991.

Oh he’s a player all right.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Four reasons why you shouldn’t go losing faith in Jessies Dream as an RSA Chase contender after Sunday’s defeat to Magnanimity in the Grade 2 Tote Pick Six Killiney Novice Chase:

Firstly, it was a strangely-run race. Three-horse races often are, with jockeys watching each other, everybody reluctant to commit, with the result that you can get a false pace and a sprint finish, and false paces and sprint finishes can throw up just about whatever result you like.

To put the pace into context, the winning time was 5mins 46secs and change, over 29 seconds slower than the Racing Post standard time, or 1.4secs/furlong slower than standard. Okay, so the ground was soft, but it was estimated to be only 0.5secs/furlong slower than standard, so not bottomless, and nowhere near the 1.4secs/furlong by which this race fell short. Also, the time was more than seven seconds slower than the time that Rare Bob clocked in the Leopardstown Chase, run over the same course and distance a half an hour later. Conclusion: they dawdled.

Secondly, Magnanimity is a good horse, a horse who is at his best on soft ground. Rated 135 over hurdles, the Dessie Hughes-trained gelding stayed on really well to win a Grade 2 novices’ hurdle on heavy ground at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival last year, and he stayed on well to beat the useful Arabella Boy and land his beginners’ chase at Punchestown in November, again on heavy ground. Davy Russell was admirably aggressive on him, his jumping through the latter stages of the race when the pace picked up was good, and he stayed on well up the hill.

Even at that, if Jessies Dream had jumped the last fence a little more fluently, or had landed a little less flat-footed, or had jumped it a little straighter, he still might have won.

Thirdly, the conditions of the race were all against Gordon Elliott’s horse. He had to concede 7lb to Magnanimity, he was racing on ground that was softer than ideal and over a distance that will almost certainly prove to be short of his best. Also, the race was run at Leopardstown, a track at which he has yet to win now in three visits.

Finally, he is a classy horse. You don’t become a non-classy horse overnight. A point-to-point winner, a bumper winner and a highly progressive novice hurdler, he has always been a staying chaser in the making. This is his game, as he proved when he won the Drinmore Chase at Fairyhouse last month. Whether he would have beaten Mikael D’Haguenet or not had that one not fallen down on landing over the last is a moot point; the fact that he finished five lengths clear, eased down, of subsequent Grade 1 Bord na Mona Chase winner Realt Dubh and 30 lengths clear of subsequent Grade 1 Fort Leney Chase winner Bostons Angel, in a good time, tells you that it was a top notch performance.

If you have backed him for the RSA Chase already, make sure you put your docket in a safe place for now.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Nobody likes losing. Well, not many people do. It’s not all about winning, the most important thing is taking part, ask any loser, a wise man once said. I don’t think it was Oscar Wilde, but he said most clever things, so it should have been.

Nobody likes losers either (for exceptions, see above) and punters can be particularly slow in extending mercy. That can work in your favour as one of said punters. Take Mikael D’Haguenet as an example. Before he ran in the Bord na Mona With Nature (I guess they are) Novices’ Chase last Thursday, he was all the rage for most things, one of the best novice chasers around this season, certain conqueror of Jessies Dream in the Drinmore Chase by common consensus (is there any other kind?) if not by deed, a short price for the RSA Chase, a significant member of the Gold Cup market despite the fact that he was still a maiden over fences, and some clever cloggses (and I can see their angle) got on board for the Arkle before Thursday’s race.

Now he is equina non supporto. Nobody wants him, 16/1 for the RSA Chase, twice the price he was before Thursday, 109/1 for the Gold Cup, 40/1 for the Arkle. A defeat can have that effect, punters can be unforgiving like that. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. But if you can find reasons for forgiving a horse a poor run, it can be a route to riches, and it is easy to find reasons for Mikael D’Haguenet’s poor performance in the Bord na Mona Chase.

We have been here before, but it is probable that he bounced. It’s an American thing, but it happens to Irish horses as well, in the same way as having a pint of Guinness is an Irish thing but it happens to Americans as well. I don’t think a reason for the bounce theory has been scientifically proven, but there appears to be a higher-than-expected propensity for horses to under-perform on their second run back after a long break. Mikael D’Haguenet hadn’t run in over a year and a half before the Drinmore, and the Bord na Mona race came up just two weeks afterwards. That’s got more bounce potential than a cheque from a property developer.

He achieved a Racing Post Rating of exactly 158 in all of his four previous runs, three over hurdles and that one over fences when he fell at the last in the Drinmore. His performance on Thursday was given an RPR of 140. That is just too bad to be true, and is easily forgiveable. Don’t lose faith.

Zaidpour wasn’t quite a bounce candidate, but it is easy to forgive him his run as well in the paddypower.com Future Champions Novice Hurdle. The Supreme Novices’ Hurdler elect before that run, you can now get 10/1 about him in places for that race. It wasn’t even that bad a performance. Getting beaten a neck in a Grade 1 race by First Lieutenant, a horse who could easily win a Neptune, isn’t a poor run at all, but when a 1/4 shot gets beaten, he has probably under-performed, and his rider Paul Townend said afterwards that he was never travelling, that he just felt flat.

It was his third run in six weeks, it was probably all a little much for him. Willie Mullins says he will freshen him up now and, if you fancied him for the Supreme before last week, don’t go giving up on him. Just help yourself to the bigger price.

Karabak was similar on Saturday. Oscar Whisky did look very good, and even Karabak’s best might not have been enough to better him, but Alan King’s horse didn’t produce his best. He had beaten Any Given Day by much more than the two-length winning margin in the Relkeel Hurdle and, even on 4lb worse terms, he should have been at least upsides that horse, who was the one to give Oscar Whisky most to think about.

It is more difficult to find reasons for this disappointing run, maybe he needs to be fresher, maybe he needs better ground, maybe he was just on a non-going day. The trick is to differentiate between the losers who were simply on a non-going day and the losers who were just, well, losers.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Christmas has come and gone and still there is no sign of a resumption of racing, so in common with many others both here and elsewhere I’ve been having a look at the Cheltenham Festival markets in an attempt to stave off the boredom.

In recent years I’ve found my ante-post involvement increasingly restricted until well into the new year, and with the unwelcome introduction of further new races in 2011 it is more difficult than ever before to predict accurately where certain horses might ultimately be aimed – never mind whether they will be fit enough to compete when March comes around. However there is one event which appeals as somewhat more conducive to an early involvement due to a couple of factors, namely a favourite who looks far too short and a second favourite who I think may well go elsewhere.

The race in question is the RSA Chase, for which Time For Rupert currently heads the market at a best-priced 4/1 after making it two from two over the larger obstacles at Prestbury Park earlier this month. Paul Webber’s likeable six year-old clearly loves the track, having also chased home Big Buck’s in the World Hurdle in March, but ask yourself do his victories over Hell’s Bay and Chicago Grey really justify such cramped odds? For my money the answer is a resounding ‘no’.

Willie Mullins has a fine record in the 3m1f event, having won it three times in the last twelve years and had several representatives run well in defeat, and his exciting Mikael D’Haguenet is next in the market at 8/1 after confirming most if not all his old sparkle remains on his return from a lengthy absence in the Drinmore Chase at Fairyhouse. In terms of pure ability he is almost certainly the best horse in the line-up, but he has yet to be tried over further than 2m5f and there is a real possibility that he could go for the Arkle or Gold Cup instead.

At the prices I would much prefer to side with stable-mate QUEL ESPRIT, who has always looked the ideal type for this race and made the perfect start to his career over fences when outpointing subsequent scorer Torphichen at Limerick. He was an effortless winner over 3m on testing ground over hurdles at Cork last year and is best forgiven his defeat at the Festival in the Albert Bartlett, having taken a heavy tumble in the ‘Neptune’ just a couple of days previously. There was a lot to like about the way he measured his jumps on that recent debut and given that he is virtually certain to be targeted at the RSA 16/1 seems very fair.

JESSIES DREAM has an entirely different profile, as a second season novice who has attained considerably more experience over jumps and already made the breakthrough at Grade 1 level. Gordon Elliott’s stable star was the main beneficiary from Mikael d’Haguenet’s spill last time, but irrespective of that it was still a fine effort to beat the others as comfortably as he did and his previous success at Galway also reads well – particularly as he was reportedly well short of peak fitness. Although yet to win over three miles under rules, he does have a point-to-point victory to his credit over the trip and when you consider that he is regarded as some way superior to Chicago Grey by his shrewd yard must be great value at 16/1.

Down Royal is sure to be packed to the rafters as the mighty Kauto Star returns to the Northern track to attempt to capture the jnwine.com Champion Chase for the second time in three years on Saturday.

Paul Nicholls’ goliath barely had to break sweat when slamming Light On The Broom and company in 2008 but with Sizing Europe, China Rock and Mossbank in opposition things are unlikely to be quite so straightforward this time. Henry de Bromhead’s Arkle Chase hero ought to at least test the favourite if ridden a bit more positively than was the case when beaten at Punchestown last month, even if there is still a question mark over his stamina for the three mile trip. However despite his heavy fall when beating a retreat in the Gold Cup it will be a major surprise if Kauto Star fails to land the spoils and set himself up for what would be an audacious tilt at the Hennessy Gold Cup en route to bidding for an incredible fifth King George Chase at Kempton.

The Grade 2 Ladbrokes.com Chase is a worthy chief support act and Pandorama, whose novice campaign came to a premature end following his defeat of subsequent RSA Chase winner Weapon’s Amnesty at Leopardstown over Christmas, is likely to prove hard to beat. Noel Meade has his team in great form as present, with the impressive Dylan Ross the latest to boost his tally in yesterday’s bumper, and is sure to have the exciting son of Flemensfirth primed for his belated return to action. His tendency to jump to his left at times is a slight concern however, and the likes of Nicholls’ The Nightingale and Roberto Goldback – whose yard was in scintillating form on the opening day of this fixture – are likely to capitalise on any deficiencies in that regard.

The Billecart-Salmon Handicap Hurdle at 1.55 lacks the strength in depth of some recent renewals and PJ Colville’s Day Of Destiny can be fancied to make a bold bid. Completely unexposed over hurdles after just four previous starts, the Clodovil gelding showed that testing conditions hold no fears for him when scoring at Fairyhouse over Easter and may have too many guns for the likes of Time Machine and Asigh Pearl.

Dundalk also plays host to action this evening to coincide with the Breeders Cup and Mark Johnston will fancy his chances of adding further to his already substantial gains at the polytrack venue courtesy of Bikini Babe in the Listed Carlingford Stakes. The Montjeu filly was thought good enough to contest the Oaks earlier this season, and though rather out of sorts of late it would be no surprise to see her bounce back against a rather weak home defence.

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