In all the hoopla and ruaille buaille that went with Kauto Star’s victory in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on Saturday (guilty), something was a little lost: the analysis of Long Run’s performance.

There were many positives to be drawn. Firstly, it was the Cadoudal gelding’s first run of the season, his first since he came of age in running down Denman and Kauto Star in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last March, and it was reasonable to expect that he would come on for the run. Not just because his trainer Nicky Henderson said that he would, but also because he has a long season ahead of him, because the King George is his first real target this season, and because the defence of his Gold Cup is his ultimate target. In terms of targets, if the Gold Cup is the yellow bullseye and the King George is the red circle that encloses the bullseye, then the Betfair Chase was the black outer ring.

Secondly, he did really well to finish second in the end. Sam Waley-Cohen had to get after him down the back straight final time as Ruby Walsh turned the screw on Kauto Star, he missed the second fence down the back quite badly, costing him ground and momentum at a crucial time, and turning for home, you wouldn’t have been surprised if he had finished 20 lengths behind Kauto, given the relative apparent ease (or lack thereof) with which each was travelling.

The other positive is that he is still only six, in theory he is still improving as a steeplechaser. If you subscribe to the notion that National Hunt horses are in their prime when they are eight or nine, then Long Run has a scarily long way to go.

One notable aspect of his performance, however, was the manner in which he appeared to get outpaced before staying on. It may be that he just blew up, that lack of race fitness counted significantly against him, and that it was just his class that enabled him stay on as well as he did when he got his second wind to finish second. The other possibility, however, is that he is going to major on stamina from now on, not on speed.

Long Run’s hurdling career when he raced in his native France was all about speed. He made his debut in a one-mile-seven-furlong race, and he never raced beyond two and a quarter miles. He did step up in trip when he tackled fences, but he never went beyond two miles and six furlongs.

He did win the Feltham Chase on his British debut over three miles, but that was at Kempton, a speed-favouring track, against vastly inferior opposition. He then won a two-mile chase at Warwick, and, when he got beaten in the RSA Chase, you couldn’t have put your hand on your heart and said that he truly got the trip. It wasn’t wholly surprising, then, that, on his debut last term, he ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup over two miles and five furlongs, not in an intermediate chase over three.

He put all those stamina fears to bed, however, when he essentially out-stayed two of the best staying steeplechasers of the modern era in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and it may be that now, as he gets older, he may gain stamina and lose speed.

It was a similar story with Best Mate. He was always a speed horse in his younger days. As a novice hurdler, he ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham over two miles, not the Sun Alliance Hurdle over two and a half. Even over fences, he was a two-miler. He was on track for the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham in March 2001, not the RSA Chase, before foot and mouth intervened.

When Best Mate ran in his first King George, his trainer wasn’t certain of his stamina, and consequently he was ridden for speed, he was ridden to get the trip. When he went back to the King George the following year, however, a Cheltenham Gold Cup in the bag, stamina assured, he was ridden aggressively by AP McCoy, a tactic which paid rich dividends.

Long Run isn’t old, six is short-trouser-age for a typical steeplechaser, but he has raced 19 times, he doesn’t have much to gain in terms of experience, and we know that you have to re-draw the age graph when you insert a French-bred horse. We know that they tend to be much more precocious than their Irish or British counterparts.

Winner of last year’s King George – run over three miles dead on a sharp flat track – it may be that Long Run’s chance of defending his title this term will be enhanced if he is ridden aggressively this time, ridden more for stamina than for speed. By the same token, it may be that the Gold Cup – run over an extended three and a quarter miles at a stiff track – will play more to his strengths this season than the King George.

· For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

At this early stage of the season, the Betfair Chase looks like one of those defining races that seem to roll around every now and again. In March, Long Run surged up the most famous hill in racing, the Crown Prince had arrived, and by defeating two glorious old warriors in Kauto Star and Denman, he added the Crown Jewel of the Gold Cup to that of his King George victory.

A step towards Kingdom now awaits for the rising star and while a success in the Betfair Chase may not be the ultimate prize, a victory nonetheless for Long Run over Kauto Star could signify a definitive passing of the torch. If he were to confine Paul Nicholls’ inmate to a third resounding defeat then surely a deserved retirement beckons.

For the former king, arguably the finest chaser since the days of Flyingbolt and Arkle, the Betfair Chase will define Kauto Star’s season and thus the remainder of his illustrious career. Should the Star shine brightly again, then all talk of retirement should be put on the shelf until the season’s end.

Let us not forget the rest of the protagonists in the most fascinating renewal of this race to be run in its short history. Last year’s Hennessy winner, Diamond Harry and recent Charlie Hall 1-2, Weird Al and Time For Rupert line up and Pure Faith, who finished so far ahead of Master Minded at Aintree complete the line up.

The duo who fought out the Charlie Hall would have to improve markedly to get involved at the business end of this race but both look like they could – eventually. Perhaps as the season progresses, this will be the case. Neither standout too much in the betting.

Diamond Harry, having his first run since that Hennessy success, has won first time out in each of his five seasons of racing. His impreesive haul of 10 wins from 13 runs is nothing to be sniffed at, and should Kauto Star falter in any way, then Diamond Harry can chase home the favourite.

Pure Faith was surely flattered by his Aintree run and he will certainly struggle to match that lofty performance.

Beaten on his seasonal debut last season, Long Run can record the win. Prone to the odd error, if Nicky Henderson has ironed out those slight mistakes then he could bid to emulate Kauto Star’s 2006 / 2007 season, when he began with success in this race and went the season unbeaten culminating in victory in the Gold Cup. It would be some sight to behold if Kauto Star came home in front but his runs last season do little to inspire and perhaps Diamond Harry could be the one for the forecast.

Selection: Long Run @ Evens

Gold Cup hero Long Run makes his seasonal reappearance in the Betfair Chase at Haydock and by all accounts he deserves to be the market leader. However, I think if there is a chink in his armour it will be that his main target will be to emulate his success in the King George and Gold Cup and on his first run last season he came third. On that basis along with his skinny price, I’m going to throw caution to the wind and take him on.

The next three in the betting we’re finding it hard to separate, with Diamond Harry, Weird Al and Kauto Star all level in the betting. Weird Al has the strong benefit of having a win under his belt already this season after winning the Charlie Hall, so the form is certainly there. Kauto Star needs no introduction, one of the best horses of our generation; however age has caught up with him, but to what degree I’m not sure. For the sake of the connections and the public and in fact racing, I’d love to see this horse end his career on a high. With any other horse you would write them off once their form subsides with age but with Kauto, the normal rules simply don’t apply. He’s won this race three times in the past and will be out to win this possibly with a greater hunger than others in the field. But it’s Diamond Harry that I keep coming back to. He’s the dark horse in the race, but his solo performance last season in the Hennessy must make him a value selection in this race and here’s why;

1) This 8 year old has only been beaten three times in his life.
2) He’s won twice at the track before and it suits him
3) He could be bigger on the day as Long Run will come in for strong support and Kauto Star will always have his followers.

It’s definitely a tough race but that’s one perspective.

Back in Ireland, Sunday’s Ladbrokes.com Morgiana Hurdle is an intriguing contest and possibly even more so than if Hurricane Fly was running as he would have been a strong odds on favourite and justifiably so. Pittoni heads the betting owned and trained by a formidable force who take no mercy on us bookies. The Charles Byrnes/Paddy Wilmott combo is one of the shrewdest pairs in the game but still, I’m not convinced of his position in the book. He’s taking on two proven grade performers and I think he could be outclassed on Sunday.

Thousand Stars in any other yard would possibly be their star, but the presence of Hurricane Fly in Willie’s has left him overshadowed but his credentials are superb. A French Champion Hurdle winner with a number of excellent runner up efforts at the highest level, you should have every confidence in him beating the favourite but the worry here is the trip. I hope Willie brings this horse to take on Big Bucks in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle and I think as the season progresses so too will the distance he runs over. But Sunday’s contest is over just 2 miles and this sharper trip could be challenging for both him and Jessica Harrington’s Oscars Well. With two Grade One victorys on his CV and a very unlucky defeat at Cheltenham, Oscars Well should be the one to beat. He has had a run in Down Royal, which he probably needed and will be ready to Rock and Roll for this weekend. The negative again will be that both of his wins were over 2m 2 and 2m 4 respectively but although having never clicked over this distance I think his five length victory in the Deloitte over 2 furlongs further entitles him to take his chance over the Champion Hurdle distance.

It was all about the novices at the weekend. It usually is all about the novices at this stage of the season, exciting bunch that they usually are.

Maybe it’s the same at this time every year, but this year’s novice chasers appear to be a cut above the average. In Menorah and Peddlers Cross, we have already seen two hugely talented hurdlers, two highly rated hurdlers (rated 162 and 170 respectively) who jump fences really well, and this weekend we saw a few more.

The duel between Grands Crus and Cue Card didn’t really come to pass in the two-and-a-half-mile novices’ chase on Friday, because Cue Card unseated his rider before the match-up developed into a competition. It was too far out to know for sure how this one would have panned out, but such was the authority of Grands Crus’s victory over Champion Court that Cue Card would probably have had to have been at his very best to give him a race.

The mistake that Grands Crus made at the final ditch should have been enough to end his chance of winning, but, for David Pipe’s horse, it was a mere blip in an otherwise flawless round. Tom Scudamore allowed him time to re-gather his thoughts, settled him back in behind Champion Court, who had moved on, then pulled him to the outside and simply ran past him again. And Champion Court is no mug.

David Pipe toyed with the idea of allowing Grands Crus take on Long Run and Kauto Star and company in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on Saturday but, while that would have been intriguing, it would surely have been crazy to ask him to take on last year’s King George and Gold Cup winner on just his second start over fences, just eight days after his first. No, a novice chase on Hennessy weekend at Newbury or on December Gold Cup weekend at Cheltenham makes much more sense, followed, logically, by the Feltham Chase at Kempton on St Stephen’s Day. He should be a huge player this season in the staying novice chasing division.

Join Together is another who should continue to make his mark as a staying novice. Of course, he doesn’t have Grands Crus’s class, he was rated 27lb inferior to David Pipe’s horse over hurdles, but there was a lot to like about the performance that he put up in landing the three-mile novices’ chase at Cheltenham on Saturday.

It looked like the son of Old Vic was getting outpaced when they turned on the tap going down the back straight, but Ruby Walsh allowed him time to find his stride, no need to panic, before asking him to close on the leaders. He closed up on the outside over the last two fences, and stayed on willingly and strongly up the hill to post an impressive victory.

A faller on his chasing debut at Chepstow three weeks earlier, the Paul Nicholls-trained gelding is actually a good jumper in the main, and, the winner of a three-mile hurdle at Chepstow on soft ground last February, he has stamina to burn. As such, it looks like the National Hunt Chase will be the race for him at the Cheltenham Festival, not the RSA Chase. In the meantime, he will be of interest wherever he shows up, as long as the emphasis is on stamina.

Back to the two-mile division, and Al Ferof threw his hat into the Arkle ring when he bolted up in the Grade 2 novices’ chase on Sunday. Paul Nicholls wasn’t that bullish about him beforehand, and no horse had won this race on his seasonal debut in the previous 17 years, but the performance that Al Ferof put up was the performance of a potentially high class steeplechaser.

His task was undoubtedly simplified when his main rival Bellvano made a bad mistake at the second ditch and seemed to injure himself, but Al Ferof could only beat what was left in front of him – Astracad, as it happened – and he did so with ease, jumping impeccably.

The Dom Alco gelding was rated just 154 over hurdles, 8lb and 16lb inferior to Menorah and Peddlers Cross respectively, but he only raced five times in that division, just one season, he won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and he probably would have gone considerably higher had he been kept to the smaller obstacles for another term. To put his rating over hurdles into context, Menorah and Peddlers Cross were both rated 151 at the end of their novice year, 3lb lower, so it would not be at all surprising if Al Ferof proved to be at least as good as one or both of them over fences.

· For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

The presence of the mighty Kauto Star in the line-up for the €160,000 Guinness Gold Cup is a massive boost to the second day of the Irish National Hunt festival at Punchestown and Paul Nicholls’ veteran appears to face a straightforward task in the Grade 1 feature event.

Clive Smith’s dual Gold Cup winner may not quite be the force of old but he showed when third to Long Run at Cheltenham in March that he retains enough ability to win top level races over fences and that form alone puts him in a different league to today’s opposition.

He has in the past proved vulnerable at the end of the season but it will be a huge disappointment to connections and his legion of fans if he fails to notch another big success. Nacarat was back on song when landing the Totesport Bowl at Aintree and could follow him home, while Follow The Plan ran well in the latter event and has place prospects.

Many of the country’s top bumper performers face off in what looks a superb renewal of the championship event at 6.05 and Dermot Weld, who took the 2010 renewal with Hidden Universe, has an outstanding chance of making it back-to-back victories with the unbeaten Waaheb.

The four year-old beat fellow youngster Jenari, who reopposes here after an impressive win at Gowran Park, on his racecourse debut at Leopardstown before following up at the Dublin track and then bringing up the hat-trick in a valuable event at Limerick. There is no shortage of opposition however, with Grade 2 Aintree winner Steps To Freedom and Willie Mullins’ Lovethehigherlaw just two others to make plenty of appeal.

Mullins launches a strong assault on the 3m Grade 2 novice hurdle at 4.55, with Ruby Walsh aboard the useful Bishopsfurze and recent Fairyhouse winner Lambro turned out again quickly, but preference is for the imposing French import Raptor, who was an impressive scorer in a high-quality maiden at today’s venue earlier in the season. With Paul Townend taking a heavy fall yesterday he is likely to need a new jockey however.

Carrigmartin, whose stable-mate Captain Cee Bee ran very creditably in the opening day highlight, was well-fancied for a handicap at the Cheltenham festival only to fail to make the cut but Eddie Harty’s gelding could gain handsome compensation in the 2m4f handicap chase at 6.40. The King’s Theatre gelding was a dual winner on good going over hurdles and might well have got away lightly with a 5lb rise for his narrow defeat of a similarly unexposed type in Rahan De Marcigny at Leopardstown on his most recent outing.

Selections:

He’s Our Man (e/w)
Empire Levant
Raptor
Kauto Star
Lovethehigherlaw (e/w)
Carrigmartin (nap)
The Engineer

With Champions League Quarter-final first legs on Tuesday and Wednesday, the US Masters in Golf and the Grand National meeting at Aintree to look forward to this week, I just wanted to write a few words about Cheltenham.

It is hard to believe that, at the time of writing (Mar 31), it is 16 days since the 2011 Festival began. The roar of the crowd is still fresh in the mind, as are several performances.

First of all, though, Donn McLean was right: a six-year-old can win the Gold Cup, and he did. Long Run looks a stayer of immense potential and Donn was right to keep faith with him.

Having nominated him ante-post for the King George VI Chase which he won, I just felt that Cheltenham might be a case of too much too soon. The stats backed this up but, when all is said and done I was wrong. I may have been right in opposing the eleven-year-olds Kauto Star and Denman but, of course, I hear you say, they couldn’t all win! Stats, drunks and lamp posts indeed!

The efforts of those wonderful warhorses Kauto Star and Denman in defeat – although it seems harsh to call it that – fair brought a lump to the throat. They have never disappointed, not even when they don’t win, and we are fortunate to have been able to see them compete over such a period of time. And they could yet race on next season.

Where I made a profit, though, was on my major bets, as given in the build-up to the meeting. Having long been a supporter of Hurricane Fly, my festival got off to, well, a flyer, with his classy and courageous Champion Hurdle win. The runner-up, Peddlers Cross also comes out of the race with great credit.

Ok, the Menorah money went west and Finian’s Rainbow came close but didn’t get the cigar, but Mourad, advised each-way at 14/1, ran a blinder to be third in the World Hurdle.

It is not always the case, but it was a good Cheltenham, both punting-wise and in terms of enjoyable and memorable racing.

There were the remarkable performances of Sir Des Champs and Final Approach, who looked for the world as though they were beaten but somehow came from off the pace to win. And Sam Winner, who also looked beaten but flew up the Cheltenham hill to finish fourth in a decent Triumph Hurdle. We may well have seen next year’s Arkle winner, as he is going chasing in the autumn.

There was Quevega, imperious in gaining a third-successive win in the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle; the huge emotion that went with Bensalem’s victory; Captain Chris’s emphatic Arkle win from the hugely-talented Finian’s Rainbow; the Andrew Lynch double; Paul Townend’s first Cheltenham winner, which was trained by the evergreen Arthur Moore.

There was Carlito Brigante’s ridiculously easy win in the Coral Cup; Gordon Elliott’s continuing rise in the training ranks; the remarkable success of the Irish, not least when they went so close to going through the card on festival Wednesday; the extraordinary Big Buck’s, now a three-time winner of the World Hurdle; the roll-back-the-years, tenacious and courageous win of Buena Vista and his young rider Conor O’Farrell; the monster gamble on Junior who, like Buena Vista, is trained by David Pipe.

There was Sizing Europe, pure class in winning at Cheltenham for the second-successive year; the return to form of Albertas Run; Paul Nolan’s first Cheltenham winner, Noble Prince; Emmet Mullins’ first Cheltenham success; the emerging talent of Bobs Worth; the heartbreak of Baby Run; the misfortune of Oscars Well, put right for Robbie Power and Jessica Harrington in the following race by Bostons Angel; the successes of Michael O’Leary and the Gigginstown House Stud, and, after the disappointment of Cue Card in the opening race of the opening day, a final day win for Colin Tizzard with Oiseau de Nuit.

I apologise if I have left out any names that should be included here. Suffice it to say, it was a tremendous festival. Hype, hope, heartbreak and heroes, indeed.

And now, with the clocks moving forward and the sun making more regular appearances, the Classic Trials and the Classics themselves spring (sic) to mind. Not so fast, though, as the English and Irish Nationals, Punchestown and the ‘Whitbread’ meeting at Sandown show us that the jumping season is far from over.

As ever, there is always something to look forward to in this remarkable sport. And, yes, there were two very important people missed out from the above lists: the incredible pair of Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins. Magical and joyous. Cheltenham shouldn’t just add a race to next year’s festival, they should add a day!

Nicky Henderson fully intends to run Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Long Run at Aintree next week – provided ground conditions are in his favour.

The six-year-old produced a superb performance to get the better of old warriors Denman and Kauto Star in the Prestbury Park blue riband, and connections are keen to see him sign off his campaign in the totesport Bowl on Thursday week.

But Henderson will not risk his charge if he feels conditions are unsuitably fast and he has also confirmed if he does not go to Aintree, he will be heading back to Robert Waley-Cohen’s stud for his summer break.

“The only thing I can say is that if you see him, it will be at Aintree,” said Henderson. “Immediately after the Gold Cup, there was a mention of going to France, but he’s definitely not going to do that. It is either Aintree or bed.”

Six o’clock, Gold Cup morning, about 10 miles from Cheltenham, still no sign of rain.  There was a smattering early last evening, when Noel Meade held out his hands, looked up at the sky, and said: liquid gold.  Then it stopped.

And this is significant, how?  Noel Meade trains Pandorama and Pandorama likes rain.  He probably couldn’t have the ground soft enough.  On genuinely soft ground, he would be one of the most likely winners of the Gold Cup.  He is a classy horse, a multiple Grade 1 winner, he has only once been beaten in his life when he has completed, and that was by Mikael D’Haguenet over hurdles when Willie Mullins’s horse was in his pomp and Pandorama may not have been at his best.  He won the Drinmore Chase as a novice chaser last season, he won the Fort Leney Chase, beating subsequent RSA Chase winner Weapon’s Amnesty, on ground that was probably better than he would ideally have liked it.  And he won the Lexus Chase this season.

He did miss the Irish Hennessy but, as long as he has recovered fully from his ailment, and recent reports suggest that he has, then that may not be a negative.  Actually, it may be a positive in that it means that Meade should have had a fairly clear run with the horse, he should have been able to train him to peak on Gold Cup day without the distraction of having to get him to semi-peak at least for the Hennessy.

It may rain later this morning, they are saying that it will, but they have revised their forecast down from a torrent to a smattering, a couple of mills tops, they are saying.  There is plenty of rain around London and Gloucester, but they reckon that Cheltenham has a micro-climate all to itself, and that, a lot of the time, the weather that prevails in the macro-environment, especially when you are talking about rain, can miss the little section of Gloucestershire that lies just below Bishop’s Cleeve.

That is not good news for Pandorama.  Actually, Meade says that he may not allow the horse take his chance in the Gold Cup if there is no appreciable rain.  It would be a shame if he were to miss the race, because on soft ground he has an outstanding chance of winning it, he is a progressive second-season chaser and this may not be the best renewal of the Gold Cup ever.  That said, you could ruin a horse by running him in a Gold Cup, up and down Cheltenham’s undulations, over three and a quarter miles on ground that is simply too quick.  Go minic is fearr rith maith na droch-sheasamh.

By contrast, no rain would suit Kempes. Kempes has won in rain but he doesn’t especially like it.  He has to step up a fair bit on the bare form of his Irish Hennessy win to win a Gold Cup, but not on the manner of it.  He was the best horse in the race by some way, he quickened twice and he gobbled up Leopardstown’s hill in the manner of a horse who had plenty more left to give.

I am against the top four in the Gold Cup.  Kauto Star and Denman are easy, as 11-year-olds, fantastic ambassadors for the sport though they have been, they are simply too old.  You have to go back to What A Myth in 1969 for the last horse aged older than 10 to win it, and neither of them could win it last year at 10.

Imperial Commander hasn’t had the ideal preparation, and he is also verging on too old at 10.  Cool Dawn, who won a poor Gold Cup in 1998, is the last 10-year-old to have triumphed.  Fifty-four horses aged 10 or older have tried since, including four 10-year-old favourites – Looks Like Trouble, See More Business, Beef Or Salmon and Kauto Star himself last year – and all 54 have been beaten.  One of them may win today, but that is a stat that you can’t ignore, and the value lies in going against the old brigade.

Long Run is more difficult, he is only six and you will hear the argument about six-year-olds and Mill House being the last one, but not many six-year-olds have tried since then (just three I think), and one of those was Gloria Vicits, who might well have won but for falling fatally at the second last.  Long Run’s age is actually a positive in my book.

However, he is not a natural at Cheltenham.  Imperious in the King George at Kempton, he has been disappointing every time he has competed at Cheltenham, the hills and the fences just seem to combine to knock him out of his rhythm.  Also, he is still not guaranteed to get the extra two and a half furlongs and the final hill, and the form of the Nicky Henderson horses this week remains a concern.

So Kempes if it stays dry, with a small saver on forgotten horse Weird Al, Pandorama if the heavens open.  I’m bringing my wellies, just in case.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Day Three of the Festival produced some wonderful action highlighted by Big Bucks third consecutive World Hurdle success (advised at Evens).  Albertas Run’s second Ryanair Chase success tipped up at 6/1 was also a personal highlight.  The final day at Cheltenham of course means the Gold Cup, but there is a terrific supporting card offering plenty of betting opportunities as well.

1.30 ZARKANDAR (7/1 general)

I am usually loath to tip horses in top level races with so little experience behind them, but I am willing to make an exception with Zarkandar in the Triumph Hurdle.  He has to defy the stats (no once raced horse has won this for over thirty years), but I was so taken with his performance on debut at Kempton last month that he gets my vote.  He found plenty for pressure and jumped very well.  He has the racing experience on the flat in France to be streetwise enough here, and as a half-brother to the Arc winner Zarkava, has the natural pace to keep up with these top juveniles.  He showed no signs of stopping at Kempton, so he should not find the uphill finish a problem here.

2.40 JOIN TOGETHER (17/2 sportingbet)

Paul Nicholls also has fine prospects with the stamina laden Join Together.  The choice of mount for Ruby Walsh, this horse will make a fine chaser next year, but he showed he has the class to compete at a high level over hurdles when second to Mossley over this course and distance in December.  He galloped clear of an inferior field in his prep race at Chepstow last month by 20l, so whilst he is not the quickest, he is absolutely certain to stay.  This newish addition to the Festival schedule has turned into a slog in the past, so it may not be the most talented horse who wins out here, but the toughest one.  If so Join Together has the attributes to keep going when others have cried enough.

3.20 Gold Cup: LONG RUN (5/1 win) and MIDNIGHT CHASE (14/1 each-way)

This year’s Gold Cup has a very open look on paper, much like the Champion Hurdle, but I am taking the simplistic view here that the best recent form on offer is that of Long Run’s win in the King George destroying a strong field by 12l.  That form has been franked by his stablemate Riverside Theatre since winning a Grade 1 at Ascot, and this 6yo surely has room for further improvement.  Critics of the horse will point to his poor record at the track in the past, but there have been excuses.  His defeat in last year’s RSA came at the end of a long campaign taking in a number of races in France the previous summer.  Things happened a bit fast for him in the Paddy Power, but he still ran a fine race in third.  This smaller field and longer distance, will surely mean a slower pace and therefore more of a chance for Long Run to get into a good rhythm.  Four of his key rivals are now 10yo or older, so age is very much on Long Run’s side.

There looks to be room for an outsider to at least get into a place and if so, course specialist Midnight Chase surely fits the bill.  Not the best of jumpers in his early days, a switch to front running tactics has transformed the horse.  His career track record reads 231111 and he showed tremendous courage and stamina on his last run in December, to battle back and beat Presenting Forever a neck.   There is every chance the opposition will allow him the freedom to get an easy lead, so whilst he still has plenty to find according to the ratings, this horse is still improving and could yet take some pegging back.

4.40 SHOEGAZER (9/1 William Hill)

David Pipe is yet to win the race named in honour of his father, despite being mob-handed in the two previous runnings of the race.   No doubt he still holds a major ambition to win this race and yet he relies on only one horse in today’s contest – Shoegazer.  This lightly raced hurdler has improved steadily during the season in three starts.  He was eighth over an inadequate 2m1f here in December, was then third at Wincanton, when given plenty to do in January, but made no mistake in a small field at Ffos Las last time.  This will be only his eighth start over hurdles and I will be amazed if there is not more left in the locker.  Ground conditions do not seem important to him and this 2m5f trip looks to be his optimum.  Jockey Conor o’Farrell will be full of confidence having landed his first Festival winner yesterday, so Pipe (in great form himself with a double here yesterday) may land a further emotional success here.

OTHER SELECTIONS: 2.05 Secret Dancer (16/1 each-way), 4.00 Dantes Storm (10/1 win) and 5.15 Imsingingtheblues (8/1 win)

Michael Hourigan believes Long Run could be the horse to land this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. Long Run is priced at 5/1 with Boylesports.

David Casey believes Kempes could make the frame in Friday’s Gold Cup at Cheltenham following his performance in the Hennessey Gold Cup.

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