Model Pupil (1st 6-1 sp) was a winner for us yesterday. No particularly strong fancy today but we will try three who are capable of going well.

Ripon 3.20: ABLE MASTER (4/1)

A former 105 rated performer, Able Master’s stock has fallen significantly in recent times, but his seasonal debut a couple of weeks ago suggested that he might be finding a new lease of life for his new trainer, David O Meara.

Having shown little sparkle throughout 2011 his rating has plummeted over twenty pounds prompting his switch to the O’ Meara yard for the start of the new season. He ran quite an encouraging race at the beginning of April, in a Redcar sprint where he stayed on strongly for sixth in the closing stages.

Drawn in stall one today, this should hopefully not inconvenience with low numbers in general faring well in sprints here. The horse should handle the soft ground better than most and the booking of the strong Silvestre De Sousa is another positive for his chance.

Cheltenham 4.20: MICHEL LE BON (15/2)

A speculative choice here with Michel De Bon who reverts to hurdles today, having not looked totally in love with fences on his previous two starts this season.

A promising Novice back in 2009, injury forced the horse on the sidelines for a significant period of time. Paul Nicholls gave the horse plenty of time to recover before throwing him into the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury, on his first run back earlier in the season. Although ultimately well beaten, Michel impressed with his cruising speed, indeed travelling in the manner of a class horse for most of the race. A few sloppy jumps coupled with his long absence were valuable excuses for his weak finishing effort.

Unfortunately, he ran no race next time in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton, where he really struggled with his jumping. Hence, the return to hurdles today in the hope of it sparking a revival. He is very much a risky proposition, but in view of how well he travelled in the Hennessey, he could still be a useful horse and off a stone lower hurdles mark, he could surprise a few today.

Newmarket 4.10: MIGHTY AMBITION (6/1)

The Craven has been thrown wide open with the morning defection of Most Improved and perhaps the once raced Mighty Ambition could be capable of stepping up to the mark.

A fair way behind some of his rivals on racecourse form, the selection nonetheless, impressed with a smooth success in a Newbury maiden last September, travelling sweetly and winning snugly at the finish. With the second and third both winning subsequently, it can be said that the son of Street Cry put up a reasonable performance.

It is true that there are horses in the field who have some Group Race form to their name, but this fellow is well regarded by Godolphin and it could be their turn to unleash a classic contender or two this season.

With the card at Cheltenham not as enticing as yesterday, I have just the one selection over jumps this afternoon, a hardy veteran for the long distance hurdle.  My other tip is on the sand at Wolverhampton.

Cheltenham 4.20: KAYF ARAMIS (12/1 general each-way)
A long distance handicap hurdle at Cheltenham would not be complete without Kayf Aramis, winner of the Pertemps Hurdle at the Festival here in 2009 on his first start at Prestbury Park.  Since then he has not won at all over hurdles, but his course record since reads 233556808228.  Considering all have been high grade contests in big fields, he retains a highly consistent record and he has certainly come back to near his best this term after a modest season last year.

The application of blinkers appears to have had a positive effect and after finishing a distant but respectable second to Oscargo in December, he was touched off by the narrowest margin by Houblon Des Obeaux on New Year’s Day.  He ran much better than his 8th place suggested at the Festival last time, racing up with a strong pace all the way before tiring late on.
A slightly more cautious ride in this slightly less competitive affair would help here and after heavy rain during the day yesterday, stamina will be required which he holds in abundance.  He also seems to handle any ground so having been dropped slightly by the handicapper, he rates serious each-way value for so consistent a performer.

Wolverhampton 8.05: ONE FOR JOULES (9/4 general)
A consistent middle distance performer, One For Joules will surely be fitter for this race after a fair return to the track here last month when 4th over a wholly inadequate 7f.
Twice a winner in Ireland last spring, she showed great improvement over hurdles in the autumn, winning twice in easy fashion before falling when looking likely to finish a decent second at Cheltenham in October.  Given time to recover from that, she showed she retained her enthusiasm with that race here last month, but considering her two wins on the level have come over 11 and 12f, todays trip is surely more suitable.

If she can show anywhere near the level of improvement on the flat that she showed over hurdles, she must surely be very well in off 66, plus a 5lb claim from her jockey.  The Michael Scudamore stable has showed much better form in the past few weeks, including a couple of easy winners, and One For Joules might be too quick for them this evening.

The flat season is beginning gradually to swing in to gear and three selections today for us.

Beverley 3.55: COSMIC MOON (EW 11/2)

Cosmic Moon lost her way after a promising start to her 2011 campaign, but dropping in the weights and grade, she might be worth a chance on her seasonal reappearance.

It is encouraging that her two best career efforts were produced when fresh, winning on her debut at Chester as a two year old and when finishing a respectable third in a decent 0-84 handicap at Haydock on her first run last season. It is worth noting that she raced off 73 on that occasionand has dropped to a mark of 62 currently.

Although mainly disappointing subsequently, she did shape better than her final position suggested in a 0-70 grade handicap at Pontefract last July and she seems to have enough ability to win a small handicap. Fresh could be the time to catch her and she could be there or thereabouts today.

Newmarket 4.45: PERENNIAL (7/4)

Perennial appears to be well regarded by connections and sets the standard here by virtue of his juvenile form.

The son of Motivator made an impressive debut at Doncaster last season producing a fine late burst to beat a subsequent Newmarket maiden winner, Encke. He backed that up with a fair second in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newbury later in the campaign again doing his best work in the closing stages.

The Hills’ have always been noted for having their horses ready early in the season and this one looks to have a leading chance here.

Newmarket 5.20: MODEL PUPIL (EW 9/2)

Shantaram is undoubtedly a worthy favourite and will take plenty of beating but at the prices an each way vote goes to Model Pupil, who may represent better value.

Another, trained by Charlie Hills, this Khalid Abdulla owned colt made a promising debut in a big field Newbury maiden last September and the form of that contest is at least on a par with that of Shantaram’s second at Sandown.

The selection would definitely have found the seven furlongs too sharp on that occasion and boasting a strong middle distance pedigree, he looks the type who could develop into a nice horse this year. Ten furlongs looks ideal on his seasonal debut and he should make the favourite work hard for victory.

Gold Cup day, and fight your way through the crowds to get to the paddock, then fight some more to get to the stands, fight to the betting ring if you want to have a bet, fight again if you want a drink, or a burger, or a sandwich, or your wallet.  It’s not just out on the track that the going is tough.  And it is.

General consensus is that the ground is on the holding side, which is bad for the pure fast-ground horses like Moon Dice, good for the horses who want easy ground, like Synchronised.

I’m still a Weird Al fan.  I think that both Long Run and Kauto Star are too short.  Both are drifting now, but even at respective odds of 2/1 and 5/1, it is difficult to recommend backing either.

Weird Al is a much more attractive betting proposition at 10/1.  He only has two lengths to find with Long Run on their Haydock running in November, and that run came just three weeks after Weird Al had won the Charlie Hall Chase.

All evidence that we have says that Weird Al is at his best when he is fresh.  His former trainer Ian Williams says so, his current trainer Donald McCain says so, his record says so, and Timmy Murphy apparently got off him after the Haydock race and said so.  Therefore, it is a huge positive that McCain has left him off since last November so that he could come here a fresh horse.

He has won twice at Cheltenham, he is still lighly-raced and has bags of scope for progression, especially under the tutelage of McCain.  The trainer’s horses are on fire this week, and all looks primed for a big run from Weird Al.

Eradicate is an interesting runner in the finale, the Grand Annual Chase.  Trained by Nicky Henderson, who usually goes all out to win this race – the race named after his father, the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase – he is a nicely progressive novice chaser, the type that can do well in the Grand Annual.  A good handicap hurdler, the winner of two Swinton Hurdles, he is potentially well handicapped over fences and, proven in big-field hurdle races, as long as he isn’t fazed by a big-field chase, he could go close.

Another wonderful Cheltenham Festival draws to a close with what has the makings of an epic Gold Cup this afternoon, and it’s difficult to have a confident view of the outcome.
Long Run and Kauto Star, between them the winners of the race three times, are the two established stars at the top of the staying chasing tree but both have question marks over them this afternoon – the latter of course having suffered a fall while schooling and facing a difficult task to repeat his amazing Haydock and Kempton performances on this stiffer track over a longer distance.

The defending champion finally got his head in front for the first time this season when outpointing stable-companion Burton Port at Newbury but there is surely much more to come from the runner-up, who had been off the track for a long time, and he is the one who just about makes most appeal in a race where Weird Al and Synchronised are just two others with claims.

Irish fortunes on the final day will hinge largely on the fate of Boston Bob in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle, though with Mount Benbulben and Sea Of Thunder also big players this is one race that ought to be booked for export. The market leader fully deserves to be a short price, having slammed Gordon Elliott’s charge in a Grade 1 at Navan before Christmas, and if anything produced an even better performance to defy his penalty against strong opposition in desperate conditions at Leopardstown in January so it will be disappointing if he fails to oblige.

Gordon Elliott has had a rather quiet week so far but today was always going to be the big day for the Capranny handler and in Shadow Catcher and Martin Pipe conditionals hurdle hope Toner D’Oudairies he boasts some serious back-up to Mount Benbulben. The first-named should be bang in the mix in the opening Triumph Hurdle, having looked unlucky not to retain his unbeaten record over jumps in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown, while Salsify and On The Fringe are strong contenders for the Foxhunters Chase on what could prove to be the best day for Irish-trained runners.

My Banker Boston Bob, 2.40 (11/8)
My Next Best Toner D’Oudairies, 4.40 (7/1)
My Radar Buster (Outside/ew chance) Sailors Warn, 2.05 (20/1)
My Card (Pick from each race)
Shadow Catcher (10/1)
Sailors Warn (20/1)
Boston Bob (11/8)
Burton Port (15/2)
Salsify (6/1)
Toner D’Oudairies (7/1)
De Boitron (11/1

The final day of the festival at Cheltenham is the hardest day to win the Tote Placepot but the payouts are huge writes the Tote’s Claire Kelly. To win the Tote Placepot at Cheltenham you must pick a horse to be placed in each of the first six races. Last year the Placepot paid €4,332.10 for a €1 bet and the year before it paid €41,288.40 for €1. A simple astounding payout for picking a horse to be placed in six races. Hopefully one of our readers scoops a pool like that today.

The first race is the Triumph hurdle and Philip Hobbs is very sweet on Sadlers Risk so we’ll include him. We’ll also include Willie Mullins Darroun.
The county hurdle is next and we are going to go for former Galway Hurdle winner Moon Dice for Paul Flynn. He ran very well when fourth here last time out and the drying ground gives him a great chance. We’ll also include Jessie Harrington’s Citizenship. 

The third race is the Albert Bartlett and I like Boston Bob here. He’s been impeccable all year and is a strong fancy for this race.

The fourth race is the feature of the week, the grade one Gold Cup. Long Run and Kauto Star will be very popular but for Placepot purposes we’ll stick with Long Run. 

The Foxhunters chase is next and regularly throws up outsiders so with a big dividend in mind we will include an outsider, Salsify for Rodger Sweeney. We’ll also pick Chapoturgeon. For the last leg we’ll go with Bourne and Empire Levant.  

This bet would cost you €16 as your number of selections are 2x2x1x1x2x2=16 units @ €1 each = €16 total cost.

The best option for Irish punters wanting to play the Tote Placepot is on our website at www.thetote.com. We have a €10 free bet for new customers, free live streaming of every race at Cheltenham, the Tote Price promise and exclusive expert Cheltenham tips every day.   Tips Next….

A successful third day of the Festival with three winners – Sir Des Champs (4/1 advised), Salut Flo (5/1 advised) and Sunnyhillboy (7/1 advised).  The final day offers perhaps the most varied series of races during the week with the featured Gold Cup looking set for a repeat performance from the defending champion

1.30 BALDER SUCCES (8/1)
Alan King as usual has a strong hand with his juveniles (Vendor was a solid third on Wednesday).  He sets a poser with two fancied runners here and stable jockey Robert Thornton might have made a mistake by siding with Grumeti.

Whist Grumeti has the graded form in the book, Balder Succes has been building up gradually, and remains unbeaten in four starts.  His last run was his best when destroying a fair field at Ascot last time and that on the quickest ground he has run on to date, so today’s ground will be fine for him.

3.20 LONG RUN (9/4)

A brilliant winner of last season’s Gold Cup, Long Run has not hit the heights as expected so far this year and has had to play second fiddle to the rejuvenated Kauto Star.   However stamina now appears to be his strong suit so the extra 2f and undulations of Cheltenham look likely to bring out the best in him.

He did get his head back in front at Newbury last month, and although he did not impress everybody, he got the job done well enough and jumped better.  With a large field and several front-runners, his ability to jump and travel will be crucial, and we know Long Run possesses the finishing speed to kill off most rivals.

5.15 BELLVANO (20/1 each-way)
As usual Nicky Henderson fields a strong team for the race that commemorates his father and Bellvano could be the one sneaking in at the bottom of the weights that does best.

Whilst he is not the easiest of rides, he has won 6 of his 13 races so far and looks the ideal sort of mount for Paul Carberry.  A strong traveller, he is likely to come there cruising turning for home, so it will be up to Carberry to nurse him to the line as best he can – shades of Harchibald perhaps?

Bellvano somewhat blotted his copybook when allowing Cedre Bleu to come past him at Newbury after cantering on the bridle for the most part, but was able to win a weaker contest at Kelso last time without coming off the bit.  He looks likely to do better covered up and delivered later, so Carberry is just the man for such tactics and with a big field, finding cover should not be difficult.

MY BANKER Balder Succes 1.30
MY NEXT BEST Long Run 3.20
MY RADAR BUSTER Bellvano 5.15

MY CARD
1.30 Balder Success (8/1)
2.05 Citizenship (8/1) and Olofi (11/1 ew)
2.40 Lovcen (16/1 ew)
3.20 Long Run (9/4)
4.00 Salsify (6/1)
4.40 Bourne (11/2)
5.15 Bellvano (20/1 ew) and Astracad (10/1)

An ultra competitive card today and I view the World Hurdle as the race to make money on.

The Jewson Chase starts off proceedings and while stable vibes would not inspire confidence, Peddlers Cross has still the best overall credentials and it may be worth giving him the benefit of the doubt. A top class hurdler, he is proven around Cheltenham and may have been slated unfairly for not being good enough against Sprinter Sacre at Kempton last time. An intriguing Pertemps final with many holding claims. I thought Pettifour ran a decent race back at the open meting in November, when carrying a big weight and he is an interesting outsider with Willie Twiston-Davies claiming a valuable seven pounds.

The Ryanair is one of the trickiest races of all to weigh up but Riverside Theatre created a good impression at Ascot recently and seemingly still improving, he might continue the great momentum of Henderson and Geraghty. I quite like both Mullins horses in the World Hurdle. Thousand Stars has been a very consistent performer at a top level and he should make the frame. In-addition So Young, is the real dark horse of the race. He went to Cheltenham as the Mullins banker last year but was not quite good enough in the Neptune. That form does not look to bad now though and I have a suspicion this is a pretty good horse. Perhaps the without Big Bucks market is the more sensible option, along with a small interest in the outright market.

Hector’s Choice brings solid form to the table in the Byrne Group Plate and should run a big race again , while Paul Nicholls has been bullish about Crack Away Jack and he remains well treated on hurdles form. Another fiendishly difficult handicap to conclude proceedings, but the Irish hold a solid hand with BecauseIcouldntsee and Start Me Up. The former, trained by Noel Glynn boasts a solid second at a previous festival and has been primed for the race by his Galway based handler. Start Me Up has shown respectable Novice form this season and the fact that he won a race up the Navan hill augers well for his chance here.

Bankers: World Hurdle W/O Big Bucks: Thousand Stars ( EW 9-2) and So Young (EW 8-1)

Next Best: So Young( EW 22-1 outright)

My Radar Buster: 2.05: Pettifour ( EW 40-1)

My Card:
1.30: Peddlers Cross (7-2)
2.05: Pettifour (EW 40-1)
2.40: Riverside Theatre (5-1)
3.20: Thousand Starts (EW 8-1 outright) and So Young (EW 22-1 outright) ; also( Thousand Stars (EW 9-2 W/o Big Bucks) and So Young (EW 8-1 W/o Big Bucks)
4.00: Hectors Choice ( EW 12-1) and Crack Away Jack (6-1)
4.40: BecauseIcouldntsee ( EW 12-1) and Start Me Up ( EW 16-1)

Get on Early: County Hurdle: Dirar ( EW 16-1)

Day three of this year’s festival revolves around the remarkable Big Buck’s and his attempt to complete an incredible four-timer in the featured Ladbrokes World Hurdle, and in so doing notch up his sixteenth win in a row.

Trainer Paul Nicholls has done an amazing job with the nine year-old, who looked as good as ever when slamming Dynaste and company in the Cleeve Hurdle here in January, but this is surely the stiffest test he has faced in a long time and those seeking to take him on will have several very classy performers running for them. Oscar Whiskey is seen by many as the chief threat but Nicky Henderson’s charge has yet to prove himself over today’s distance and the likes of Thousand Stars and Voler La Vedette make more appeal at the prices. The latter in particular looks tremendous value at 25/1 given her level of improvement over the past twelve months and it will be disappointing if she isn’t in the thick of the action turning for home at the very least.

The Ryanair Chase provides a wonderful chief support act, with none of the fourteen contenders easy to rule out, and following his Ascot victim Finian’s Rainbow’s Champion Chase triumph yesterday Somersby is one of the more appealing candidates. Henrietta Knight’s gelding had been something of an under-achiever prior to that success in the Victor Chandler Chase, and if the cheek pieces have the same positive effect this time he may prove too strong for the likes of Medermit and Riverside Theatre.

Peddlers Cross and Sir Des Champs, two previous festival winners who for a while looked like taking up different engagements, cross swords in the opening Jewson Novices Chase and though the 2m5f is probably a bare minimum for him the latter is preferred. Unbeaten since joining Willie Mullins, the highlight coming with that last gasp success in the 2011 Martin Pipe Conditionals Hurdle, Davy Russell’s mount really impressed when overcoming a troubled passage to make it three out of three over the larger obstacles at Leopardtown six weeks ago and could make up into a Gold Cup horse next year.

My Banker Sir Des Champs 1.30
My Next Best Voler La Vedette (e/w), 3.20
My Radar Buster (Outside/ew chance) Your Busy, 4.40

Get on Early (Your fancy for the following day) Toner D’Oudaiiries (Martin Pipe Hurdle)

1.30 The Jewson
The vibes have been mixed regarding Peddlars Cross in the build up and I don’t fancy him here. A horse I do fancy very strongly is Sir Des Champs for Willie Mullins. He’s won 6 out of 6, is a Cheltenham winner and was so impressive last timeout at Leopardstown. Serious banker material here. I’ll also throw in Champion Court as a good each way bet.
Bets:
5 star Win Sir Des Champs
1 star Each-Way Champion Court

2.05 Pertemps
Always a really tricky race and best to stick with each betting or place only. Two that I fancy are Sargeant Guibs and Catch Me
Bets:
2 stars Each-Way Sargeant Guibs
1 star Each-Way Catch Me

2.40 Ryanair
This race is turning out to be a right cracker with a very strong Irish representation. The ground has probably gone against my antepost fancy Rubi Light who should still run well. I was very disappointed with Noble Prince last time out so have to leave him out of the equation as well. I’m going to go with Albertas Run each way and Great Endeavour. Old favourite Forpdaydeplasterer could go well at a big price.
Bets:
2 stars Each-Way Albertas Run
2 stars Each-Way Great Endeavour
1 star Each-Way Forpady

3.20 World Hurdle
The champion Big Bucks for Paul Nicholls and Ruby looks a banker but then so did Hurricane Fly. He faces his toughest test yet with Oscar Whiskey, Thousand Stars and So Young taking him on. He’s way too short for me so I’m going to back So Young EW. If Voler La Vedette didn’t get too buzzy in the run up to the race she would have a very good each way chance also.
Bets:
2 stars Each-Way So Young

4.00 Byrne Plate
The Festival Plate is next and we’ll go with Hectors Choice and Divers
Bets:
1 star Each-Way Divers
1 star Each-Way Hectors Choice

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