Incidentally, on the whole sliced bread thing, there have been many good things since sliced bread – the internet and Sinndar in the Irish Derby to name but two, and I’m not sure that the telex didn’t come along after they managed to split the bread – and surely one of them was a better thing than Peter Lyons’s finest. I’m not even fully convinced that the sliced pan is that good a thing. Give me a batch loaf that you can get a knife at and cut as thick as you like before smothering it with a couple of lumps of butter and a spoonful of raspberry jam any day.

Anyway, Long Run. They have been talking about this fellow long before he made the journey from Guy Macaire’s yard in Les Mathes to Nicky Henderson’s in Seven Barrows. And even if you hadn’t been speaking to someone who knew someone who worked at the yard, or whose boyfriend rode the horse, you would have known that he was good long before he made his British debut in the Feltham Chase at Kempton on St Stephen’s Day.

Over-hyped? I don’t think so actually. This is a horse who won a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 hurdle, a Listed Chase, a Grade 2 Chase and the Grade 1 Prix Maurice Gillois Grand Steeple-Chase (that’s easy for you to say) at Auteuil before he even considered emigrating, and he is still only five. Add now the Feltham Chase over three miles and the Grade 2 Kingmaker Chase over two miles at Warwick. He has won 10 of his 14 races, he has only once been out of the first two and he has never been out of the first three. Nicky Henderson says that he and Punchestowns are the two best steeplechasers that he has ever had. (Better than Remittance Man, Nicky?) Ref above, he is still only five.

He could be a superstar, but 2/1 about him for the RSA Chase, the Sun Alliance? Not so sure. He has a mountain to overcome. Young horses find this race tough. Maybe the French are re-writing the stats books, maybe a five-year-old French-bred of 2010 is not the same horse as a five-year-old Irish-bred of 1990 or 2000, but he is still a maturing horse. Only two six-year-olds and one five-year-old have won this race since 1978, and many very good ones have tried, including One Man, Wayward Lad, Righthand Man and Little Owl. What A Friend and Carruthers were well-fancied and well-backed six-year-olds last year, and both of them came up well short.

Star De Mohaison did win the Sun Alliance Chase as a five-year-old in 2006, but that was back in the good old days when five-year-olds received 10lb from their elders. These days, under the new weight-for-age stipulations, and because Cheltenham is a little later this year than usual, Long Run only gets 1lb. He is as good as off level weights with his elders. Also, before Star De Mohaison, you have to go back to 1950 for the previous five-year-old winner.

There has been much comment about Sam Waley-Cohen in recent days. I don’t consider the jockey as big a negative as a lot of people seem to, he may not be as stylish as Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty or Davy Russell, but he appears to be a good horseman, and he has ridden big winners at Cheltenham and at Aintree. However, he doesn’t ride as often as his rivals do, he does lack experience especially for a big day, and they don’t get much bigger than this. He has had just 15 rides on the racecourse since last April, he has had just one ride this month so far. He rode one winner in December (Long Run), no winners in January, one winner in February (Long Run) and no winners so far in March. Were it not for Long Run, he would be winnerless since last October. Also, the fact remains that, if this were not a Grade 1 race, he would be able to claim 5lb. That, on top of the new weight-for-age regime, means that Long Run has to find a stone more than Star De Mohaison had to, against vastly superior rivals than Star De Mohaison faced.

On top of all of that, Feltham winners have a desperate record in the Sun Alliance, even though you would think that the horse that wins the Grade 1 three-mile novices’ chase at Christmas should be a leading contender for the Cheltenham contest. They have been, but none of them have won. (Back to the Weatherbys Betting Guide.) All 16 Feltham winners who ran in the Sun Alliance Chase were beaten.

Following on from that, we don’t know how Long Run will handle Cheltenham’s undulations. Auteuil, where he has been so prolific, is a flat track, Kempton is a flat track, Warwick has a hill or two, but not where the fences are, and they are nothing like Cheltenham’s hills. That’s it. He has only run at three tracks in his life. He will face a wholly different task to anything he has faced before on Wednesday, and he showed a tendency to be a bit guessy at his fences at Kempton and Warwick, even on flat tracks. He may well be up to it, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him make up into a top class staying chaser in the (ahem) long run, but at no better than 5/2 for next Wednesday’s race, on the evidence that we have to date, he is not for me.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

(Big cheer.)

We’ll win the Arkle as well I’d say. Captain Cee Bee may be nine, and no nine-year-old may have won it since Danish Flight won it in 1988, and before him you may have to go back to Sir Ken in the 1950s when we weren’t really sure where Cheltenham was, but how many nine-year-olds have run in it? Huh? Answer me that? Wouldn’t it be a quare nine-year-old now that was still a novice over fences if it wasn’t for an injury or something? This fellow is the business, he looks like a two-year-old. And if he doesn’t win it, won’t Sizing Europe or Sports Line or Osana or Shakervilz win it? Somersby me arse.

We always win the Champion Hurdle. It’s a bugger that Solwhit has a bit of a runny nose, but if the antibiotics that he’s on from now until Thursday are anything like the antibiotics that I had last November, he’ll be out having a pint on Saturday night and he’ll be playing golf on Sunday. Go Native should be odds-on anyway. He won the Fighting Fifth and the Christmas Hurdle and he won the Supreme Novices’ last year in the same time as the Champion Hurdle was run in an hour later when he hit the front too early and started looking for people he knew in the stands half way up the run-in.

It’s a waste of time running the Cross-Country Chase at Cheltenham. They should just have a party down at Enda Bolger’s, he has the banks and the ditches down there as well, and get him to tell us which horse of his is going to win it this year. It would save him the bother of having to send his horses across the water. The only problem will be determining which of the JP horses will wear the white cap and which will wear the green and gold quartered cap, and which cap will Nina or JT be beneath, and if they will have enough different coloured caps in the weigh room to go around the others. Sizing Australia’s presence in the race makes us about a 1.01 shot, and value at that.

We’re about the same price to win the mares’ race with Quevega and Voler La Vedette backed up by No One Tells Me and Zarinava. That’s five Irish winners anyway on the first day. We could give the William Hill Chase to the British. It’s nice when they win one on the first day, keep them coming back.

There’ll be no let-up on the second day either. Rite Of Passage, a 103-rated horse on the flat who jumps hurdles like Derval O’Rourke, is not going to get beaten in the Neptune, and if he is, it will be by Quel Esprit, whom Willie Mullins says is probably his best bet of the meeting. Weapon’s Amnesty or Uimhiraceathair could win the RSA Chase and Big Zeb could easily beat Master Minded in the Champion Chase – wouldn’t he have beaten him by a couple of lengths at Punchestown last April if he hadn’t tried to carry the last fence half way up the run-in? And if we’re 1.01 to win the Cross-Country, we’d be 1.001 to win the Bumper, if Betfair would allow you go that low.

We’ll break now for the raffle and the auction, but don’t go far, we’ll be back in 20 minutes to tell you what Irish horses are going to win most of the races on Thursday and Friday.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

They fill a need, that’s for sure.  The appetite for Cheltenham around these parts is pretty much insatiable these days, it’s a perennial thing, Cheltenham talk and Cheltenham thoughts the meat and drink, pre-Cheltenham evenings the pieces of bread that keep you going until the main course arrives. I’m not sure that they are the key to untold riches, I’m not sure that you are going to hear about the handicap hurdler who is a stone and a half well-in, or the novice chaser who has been running over a trip that is two miles short of his best, or the bumper horse who is better than the one that won by a distance at Fairyhouse last week, but you can still pick up some useful pieces of information and an insight into some worthwhile opinions.  And even if you don’t, sure it’s an opportunity to have a good night out and to trade Cheltenham thoughts with a couple of hundred like-minded individuals.

There were a few interesting pieces of information and several worthwhile opinions in Westmanstown last night.  Willie Mullins was on the phone, says that his novice hurdlers’ targets are pretty much sorted: Blackstairmountain and Flat Out in the Supreme, Quel Esprit in the Neptune, Enterprise Park in the Albert Bartlett. Fionnegas will go for either the Neptune or the Albert Bartlett, but he’s probably thinking Albert Bartlett at this stage.  Scotsirish goes for the Ryanair, Shakervilz goes for the Arkle (both outsiders with good chances) along with Sports Line, and Quel Esprit is probably his best chance of the week.

Davy Russell was right there at the adjoining table.  Of course he likes Solwhit, thinks that Go Native is a big danger though.  He is hopeful for Weapon’s Amnesty and Carlito Brigante, he likes Tavern Times and he says that Barry (Geraghty) won’t tell you anything about Super Kenny, a new juvenile hurdler of Nicky Henderson’s, a French recruit owned by Highclere, that it’s all hush hush.  Colm Murray says, Barry?  Barry says he knows nothing about him, he runs on Friday at Newbury, that’s all he knows.  Davy says hush hush.  The audience say guffaw guffaw.  It’s good craic.

Barry does like Punchestowns and Finian’s Rainbow, mind you, reckons they’re his best two chances for the week, Paddy Power likes Drumbaloo in the bumper, Evan Williams reckons Nicky Henderson will have the 1-2 in the RSA Chase with Punchestowns and Long Run, Colm Murphy is wondering if Willie might forget to declare Quevega, because Voler La Vedette is in great form, as is Big Zeb, probably just double-handed this year but two live chances.

Most of them are at this stage.  No losers yet.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

So I took myself and our five-year-old up to Leopardstown yesterday.  Divide and conquer.  It’s a tough one for said five-year-old, she loves horses but, if she touches one and rubs her eye without washing her hands, her eye will flair up like a strained tendon.  (Scary day the day we discovered that one.)  So she knows she’s not allowed pet them, not even when they are standing still, but she likes when they look at her.  Mansony (number four, big white noseband thing) looked her straight in the eye in the pre-parade ring and it made her day.  She liked the chips, she liked standing by the rail and hearing the horses’ footsteps, she loved being high up in the stand and using the binoculars (if you look through the other end the horses are really small apparently), and, when her nose got cold just before the bumper, she decided that we would watch the last race from inside the glass and that we’d stick around for just some of the après-racing gallops, not all of them.

So we saw the much-vaunted gallops, now considered as significant a stepping stone to Cheltenham glory as the King George.  Hmmm.  I’m not so sure.  I remember Sky’s The Limit in 2006 all right, a white charger emerging from the half-light and everyone wondering what it was before finding out and backing him into 11/1 for the Coral Cup and watching him doing the exact same thing in shimmering daylight at Cheltenham, remarkably, a five-year-old under 11st 12lb.  There were a couple of others, like Total Enjoyment in 2004 and Cooldine last year, but most horses are just there for a good leg-stretch and a bit of a school, and it’s difficult enough to draw too many conclusions.  For an antonym, remember Rule Supreme, failed to complete the school, then won the Sun Alliance Chase two weeks later.

I guess people are there to see what nuggets of information they can pick up, things that ‘normal’ people won’t see.  I think it’s an Irish thing, it’s in our racing culture to try to get the inside track.  We love to be in the know, have a little bit of knowledge that we think most people don’t have.  It’s why the bumper, the race with by far the fewest lines of form on view, is historically the biggest betting race on an Irish racecard, it’s why people still flock to pre-Cheltenham evenings, it’s why punters ask you what you know, not what you fancy or where you think the value lies.

J’y Vole looked good and Mikael D’Haguenet jumped more than adequately and Barker will need to come on a fair bit and Forpadydeplasterer is alive and well, but what a horse does under race conditions these days is much more relevant to Cheltenham for me, and Tranquil Sea looked very good in the Newlands Chase.  I would be lying if I said that I didn’t kick myself a bit when I saw the Edward O’Grady-trained gelding coming clear on the run-in under just a squeeze from Andrew Mac.  There is no real reason why I would say that, but if I did it would be a lie.  Metaphorically of course.  There I’ve been, looking at 7/1 about him for the Ryanair Chase for a while now, thinking I’ll be clever and wait for non-runner-no-bet before backing him, just in case.

Even when I saw him entered and declared yesterday, I thought, sure even if he beats his rivals here doing handsprings, they can’t shorten him up too much, and he probably won’t be that impressive, he will probably need the run at least a little and he almost certainly needs a bit further than this two-mile trip to be at his best.  Clever indeed.  Wrong on nearly every single count.  He could hardly have been more impressive and the bookmakers are not a collective that is apt to miss an opportunity.  He is now no better than 5/1 and that is much closer to his correct price, unfortunately.

“That was a great day Dad.”  Made mine.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Dig a little deeper.  He was an exciting novice chaser for Pat Doyle two seasons ago, he finished second to Pomme Tiepy in the Woodlands Park Chase and he finished second to Pomme Tiepy in the Ten Up Chase, both three-mile novice chases, both Grade 2 races, both run on soft ground.  He ran a cracker to finish second to Casey Jones in a three-mile handicap chase at Punchestown in October on his last start for Doyle, after which he was off the track for four months.  His Ascot run was his first for Emma Lavelle, and he just seemed to lack match practice, but the experience and the run should have put him spot on for whatever was next.  Turns out, what’s next is the Racing Post Chase today.

A couple more things on that Ascot run for a second.  The Sawyerwon his next race off a 4lb higher mark, then ran a cracker to finish third behind Monet’s Garden in the Ascot Chase, with the result that he is now rated 18lb higher than he was when he beat Kilcrea Castle by two lengths.  Kilcrea Castle races off a 1lb higher mark today.  He was due to meet Miss Mitch on 2lb better terms for a two-length beating today, but she was lame this morning so she is out of the race.  That’s one less to beat, but it would have been surprising if he wouldn’t have improved enough to have her measure this time anyway.  (Easy to say now, I know.)

When you bet ante post, you are effectively betting a double: the horse to run and the horse to win.  You need both legs to go in before you can collect.  Kilcrea Castle was entered in the three-mile chase at Wincanton last Saturday, so he didn’t look like a definite intended runner in today’s race until all the 20/1 had been taken, a blue line appeared on Oddschecker and the best you could have got was 14/1.  Then he was taken out of the Wincanton race, which was beaten by the weather anyway, and it was all roads to Kempton.

Even when you see the money, even when it looks like he is an intended runner, there are still crocodiles lurking.  Big Fella Thanks shaped like an intended runner in today’s race, but he wasn’t even entered at the five-day stage.  Possol shaped like an intended runner, but the ground scuppered that one and he wasn’t declared on Thursday.  Miss Mitch shaped like an intended runner, but, as above, she was lame this morning, so she’s out.

Nacarat and Madison Du Berlais set a fair standard, they both love Kempton and the race generally favours highweights (nine of the last 10 winners carried 10st 13lb or more, three of the last six carried 11st 12lb).  However, the ground is rarely as soft for the Racing Post Chase as it is probably going to be today, and that may just make it difficult for those at the top of the handicap.

Fistral Beach will be popular, but he is 4lb out of the handicap, there is a chance that he doesn’t truly stay three miles on soft ground, and Ruby Walsh will be going without supper this evening if he is intent on doing 10st.  Razor Royale is an interesting runner who will be a decent price, but Kilcrea Castle is a classy individual who is potentially a fair bit better than his handicap mark.  He will love the soft ground, he goes well right-handed, he should stay the distance, he jumps well and it looks like he has been trained for the race.  The 5/1 that you can get about Kilcrea Castle still looks big.

Let’s hope we get the first leg of the double up at least.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Now, a similar affliction is creeping into the novice hurdlers.

Perhaps it comes with weight of numbers and strength in-depth. You would have had to have search long and hard to put together a couple of yards in the UK and Ireland that together would be able to muster a team of bumper horses to rival the one that Mullins seems to be able to put together every year. It’s a bit like the Galway minor hurlers in that regard. Willie Mullins is to bumper horses what Coca Cola is to the soft drinks industry, and that’s just the way it is.

Now his novice hurdlers are at it. There is a difference, however, in the context of Cheltenham. With the bumper horses, there is only one race, Champion Bumper or bust, run in the bumper or stay at home in your box and wait for Punchestown. With the novice hurdlers, you have options, which makes it head-scratching stuff from a betting perspective. Supreme Novices’, Neptune, Albert Bartlett, the three main options, throw in the Triumph and the Fred Winter if you are talking about a four-year-old, and the County Hurdle and the Coral Cup if you are so inclined (novices can run in them too). It’s only two years since Fiveforthree, all set for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, was re-routed at the 11th hour to the Ballymore Properties, such as it was, and won it, beating Venalmar into second place. Those who backed Fiveforthree for the Supreme or Venalmar for the Ballymore felt fairly aggrieved, and those who had a double the pair of them strongly considered giving it all up and taking up origami.

So how would you split them up?  Blackstairmountain for the Supreme, that looks safe enough.  Flat Out for that as well possibly, an outsider, but he did look good in winning at Punchestown on Wednesday, maybe Morning Supreme, if she goes well at Naas on Sunday. Mares can do well in the Supreme, they have won three of the last 14 renewals and they get a 7lb allowance these days.

Quel Esprit has the Neptune option, but he looked so good in winning over three miles at Cork in December, you have to think that the Albert Bartlett is the race for him, which means that Mullins may rely in Fionnegas in the Neptune. He ran a cracker to chase home Dunguib in the Deloitte, and he should be well suited by stepping up again in distance. On the other hand, he could step up to three miles, Quel Esprit could go in the Neptune, and Morning Supreme could join him there. (Stop chewing that pencil.)

Enterprise Park is probably on track for the Albert Bartlett, he looked very good in beating Quito De La Roque and Huge De Vindecy over two and three-quarter miles at Limerick over Christmas, and both of those horses have since come out and won, although he also has the Neptune option. So many permutations, and that’s without the fringe players, like Arvika Ligeonniere, Don’t Turn Bach, Rhyl Accord and their ilk. It’s a nice issue to have for the trainer, but it is still an issue, and it still needs to be resolved.

Secant Star for the Triumph. He’s surely as safe a starter as Richie Cummins.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Slight digression: I’m dammed if I can figure out the methodology behind the framing of the weights. It’s a perennial thing at this stage, why can’t every horse run off its correct handicap mark, why does Albertas Run have 5lb less to carry just because it is the Grand National than he would have to carry if he was running in the Scottish National or the Eider Chase or the Midlands National, why are some horses allotted higher ratings to increase the chance that they will get a run (doesn’t that mean that other horses’ chances of getting a run are decreased, and in what way is that fair?), why is Irish Invader’s Grand National mark 5lb higher than his Irish mark and 10lb higher than the mark off which he ran last year, when he finished 11th, beaten over 40 lengths, despite the fact that he hasn’t run since? He’s well named.

So the shortlist then. (I have concluded, there is no benefit in trying to figure out the methodology, it’s a fruitless exercise, it appears that there is no right answer anyway and, even if you did happen upon a formula, where’s the reward?) Much better to sit down with the results of the tinkering (the actual weights) and try to figure out what might win it. Alphabetically:

Backstage, lovely horse, struck me as a National type when he won at Ffos Las last August, a prolific point-to-point winner who is trained by Gordon Elliott, as sharp a trainer as they make, who won the National a couple of years ago with Silver Birch, and who has been training this fellow for the National since last summer at least. 11st should be fine as long as one of the top weights run and keep the weights as they are. The worry is that he is just an eight-year-old. The National is still a mature horse’s race. Only Bindaree in 2002 has won the race for eight-year-olds in the last 16 years.

Big Fella Thanks, another eight-year-old, which is well against him, but he ran a cracker in the race last year as a seven-year-old (far too young) when he finished sixth behind Mon Mome. Bizarrely, he has been dropped 3lb for his latest run, when he was giving Duc De Regniere a race at Kempton over an inadequate two miles and five furlongs only to unseat at the second last, so he is 3lb lower for this year’s National as a stronger eight-year-old than he was as a seven-year-old last year.

Black Apalachi, winner of the Becher Chase in 2008, he was travelling really well when he unseated at Becher’s second time last year. He is a little old at 11, but it’s not an insurmountable age. He is only 1lb higher than he was last year and he has been trained for the race.

That’s all the Bs. Add in Don’t Push It, a classy individual who stays well and who won a handicap chase on the Mildmay track at the Grand National meeting last year, but who may be high enough in the weights on 11st 5lb; Iris De Balme, the 2008 Scottish National winner who shaped with a lot of promise over hurdles at Wetherby 10 days ago on his first run for almost two years and who is on a lovely weight of 10st 6lb as things stand; Kilcrea Castle, an interesting recruit to the Emma Lavelle yard who also ran promisingly at Ascot last time on his first run for his new trainer and who is bred to stay well; Mon Mome, who won the race by 12 lengths last year and is 7lb higher, a 10-year-old who has been trained specifically for the race this year, as opposed to last year, when the National was just another race for him; Niche Market, the Irish National winner, although it is a worry that the intention is for him to have two or three more runs between now and 10th April; Possol, another who is being trained for the race, winning two novice hurdles this term, but who is only seven and who has been awarded a harsh enough mark of 151; and Snowy Morning, third to Comply Or Die in 2008 as an eight-year-old and now back down to a mark that is just 2lb higher than the mark off which he raced then.

Admittedly, it’s a fairly long list for a shortlist, and you have to accept the possibility that, the National being what it is, the winner is not even in there. There are a number of key decisions for the whittling-down process, not least, can you continue to discount horses who are set to carry more than 11st, given that the first four home last year all carried 11st or more, and the second and third carried 11st 6lb and 11st 4lb? Could it be that the tinkering with the weights is finally changing the shape of the race? That the highweights are not as disadvantaged any more on goodish ground, given that the classier horses are running in the race and that the bottom weight could be as high as 10st 6lb or 10st 7lb?

Conclusions anon.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Myth 1: A two-mile handicap hurdle, with about 127 runners and 26lb between top and bottom weight, sponsored by a bookmaker, which was won in 2007 by a 50/1 shot, it is a bookmakers’ benefit gig.

Perhaps surprisingly, it isn’t really. True, Heathcote’s win three years ago was a bit of a thunder cloud in the Sahara, but excepting that one, the race is generally won by a fairly well-fancied runner. Four of the last eight winners were priced at 15/2 or shorter and, excepting Heathcote, you have to go back to Within The Law in 1979 to find the last winner who was sent off at greater than 16/1. It is actually a punters’ race.

Myth 2: Nicky Henderson has been responsible for four of the last 10 winners of the race, so his Spirit River, the choice of Barry Geraghty, is the one to be on.

Not so fast. When Geos won the race for Henderson in 2000, most clued-in observers, including the trainer himself and a lot of the clued-in observers at Seven Barrows, thought that Mick Fitzgerald was mad to choose to ride him instead of Blue Royal. (In fairness, most clued-in observers had a point, as Blue Royal was only beaten four lengths by Istabraq in the Champion Hurdle a month later.) When Geos won it again in 2004 with Marcus Foley on board, there wasn’t much to choose for many between the winner and another Henderson horse Saintsaire, despite the fact that the latter was 5lb out of the handicap. Conclusion – don’t discount the other Nicky Henderson representatives, Stravinsky Dance, First Point and Fairyland.

Myth 3: Gary Moore has won the last two renewals of the race, so take Harry Tricker’s chance seriously.

Half-true. Don’t forget Numide.

Myth 4: Philip Hobbs has never won the race, it is a race that he simply doesn’t target, so you can easily discount his runners.

Again, dig a little deeper. It is true that Philip Hobbs has never won it, but it is not true that it is not a race that he targets, if you follow the double negative. He has actually run 15 horses in the race in the last 10 years, and eight of them have been placed. That is the same number of placed horses as Nicky Henderson has had from around half the number of runners. Moreover, while the Henderson factor in the Totesport Trophy is well known, and almost certainly factored into prices by bookmakers, there is no premium to pay for Philip Hobbs horses. Don’t discount the chances of Ring The Boss or Oldrik too readily.

Myth 5: The race used to be called the Schweppes.

Shhhh … that one is true.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Punting Low 2: Red Moloney. Poor Red Moloney. I thought he had a lot in his favour in a two-mile handicap hurdle at Musselburgh today, he was giving away plenty of weight, but he is a classy individual – he was rated 110 on the flat when he was with Kevin Prendergast – who had travelled as well as Zaynar and Karabak into the home straight in the Ascot Hurdle on his latest run before his stamina ran out. He was going to be well suited to dropping back down in trip to two miles. Also, Musselburgh is a track at which it is not difficult to carry heavy weights, a flat track at which is rarely gets too soft. Eight of the previous 10 winners of this race had carried 11st or more, three of them had carried 11st 10lb or more. Red Moloney was three for three at Musselburgh, and the not-too-soft ground was ideal. Alas, Red Moloney was slightly unsighted at the second flight and he came down. It didn’t look good when the runners had to by-pass the flight on the second circuit with the screens up around the horse. Inevitably, it was later confirmed that the horse had broken a shoulder in the fall and had to be put down. Poor Red Moloney.

Punting Low 3: Whodoyouthink finishing fourth, just where you don’t want an ante post each-way bet to finish. (Wasn’t Dunguib awesome?)

Punting Low 4: Joncol – Delighted for the horse, and for Paul Nolan and Alain Cawley, but I chickened out of it.

Punting Low 5: Staying with the poultry theme, I thought my pet duck needed to stretch his legs this evening, so I brought him down for a dip in the canal. He didn’t make it to the far side. (Okay, that one I made up, but it was that kind of day.)

Some solace: Weapon’s Amnesty and Captain Cee Bee ante post.

Punting High: [Please insert text]

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com

Step forward Taranis and Tidal Bay to rescue the situation.

Taranis was good. We hadn’t seen him since he was pulled up with an injured tendon in the 2007 King George. (Yes, Kauto Star won that one too.) That’s over two years ago. Since then, he has been busy recovering from injury and trucking up and down the hill at Ditcheat, doing slow work but no fast work apparently, to the point where trainer Paul Nicholls was fairly lukewarm on his chances on Saturday.

“We’ve had some setbacks this season too,” the trainer said in his Racing Post column (apparently he got a bug just before Christmas), “so it’s been a hard road back and I have yet to see the old ability’s still there.”

They make fools of you, these horses. Nicholls is one of the most forthright trainers in the business. If he said that he had yet to see the old ability, then you can be sure that he had yet to see the old ability, and he was more surprised than most in the winner’s enclosure afterwards. But Taranis travelled in his race with the old ability, the ability that saw him win a Ryanair Chase and a James Nicholson Chase in 2007. All the while you waited for lack of a recent run to take its toll. Okay, they can train them to win on their seasonal debuts these days, with their all weather gallops and their new-fandangled hills, but you still have to think that they will be better on their second runs, with a little bit of match practice under their girths, in the same way as Kerry are a better team in the second round than they are in the first, even though they hardly go into the first round unfit.

But Taranis didn’t blow up. On the contrary, the 16/1 shot, freely available at 20/1 and more, eased his way up to Carruthers’s withers over the second last, took it up over the last and powered away up the hill. If you wanted to be harsh, you would point to the fact that he jumped continually to his right (perhaps something is still ailing him a little, I don’t remember him ever doing that before), and the fact that the time wasn’t great, and that the race may have fallen apart a little, with Inchidaly Rock falling and Carruthers jumping fairly indifferently, but you can only ever beat what they put in front of you, and Taranis did so in style.

It was disappointing that Inchidaly Rock, another Ditcheat resident and the choice of Ruby Walsh (how many have they got?), fell at the third last on the first circuit, a novice’s fall by a novice, as it would have been interesting to see how he would have fared, but he would have wanted to have been mighty good to beat his stable companion on the day. It was a fine result for Paul Nicholls on a fine day, even with The Tank and Kauto Star (surely he deserves a nickname at this stage) at home. What’s the point in playing your Ace or your King when you can win the trick with your Jack or maybe even your 10?

Then there was Tidal Bay. It may have been a last roll of the die on Howard Johnson’s part, but he took off the cheekpieces and allowed the horse go commando, with just the noseband that he wore in the 2008 Arkle to help him point his nose in the right direction, and sent him back over hurdles, his first run over the small ones since he beat Wins Now in the Mersey Hurdle at Aintree in April 2007, and the horse responded.

Perhaps he had an inkling that it was his last chance to book his place in the box for the Festival (Cheltenham Festival Trials Day indeed), but he travelled like a nice dream through the race for Brian Hughes and, despite making mistakes at the second last and at the last, he galloped gallantly up the hill, him and his noseband and his high head carriage, to out-speed the stayer Time For Rupert (who still deserves his place in the World Hurdle picture on this evidence, given that he was conceding 4lb and three years to the winner) and previous Champion Hurdle winner Katchit, and earn short quotes (as big as 20/1 directly after the race, as short as 7/1 now) for the World Hurdle. He deserves them too. He could be the one to put it up to the favourite.

Coincidentally, this race was won last year by another would-be chaser who was busy trying to rebuild a career over hurdles for himself. His name was Big Buck’s, and he didn’t turn out half bad.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.