Guineas weekend

Well, the rain did fall on Newmarket during the week, 14mm of it in one sitting on Tuesday evening, which meant that the ground would have been soft had the 2000 Guineas been run on Wednesday. It wasn’t. Sunshine and a drying wind means that it will probably be just about on the easy side of good by 3.25 on Saturday afternoon. That’s bad for mudlarks, bad for those who want to hear their hooves rattle, but good for everyone else.

The Jim Bolger-trained New Approach was the outstanding juvenile last year, winning all five of the races he contested, including a brace of Group 1s, and digging really deep to repel Fast Company in his season’s finale, the Dewhurst Stakes. However, history tells us that, just because you are the best two-year-old, it doesn’t mean that you will be the best three-year-old. In recent times, Dubawi, Xaar, Alhaarth and One Cool Cat were all clear of their peers in their respective freshman seasons, but by the time they turned three and engaged in Classic combat, they had been reeled in, all four of them getting beaten in the Guineas at short prices.
Of course, on all known form New Approach deserves to be favourite, but there are so many unknowns, so many variables. Horses develop so much between the autumn of their two-year-old seasons and the spring of their three-year-old seasons – a time period that usually represents 20% of the young horse’s life up to that point – that it is arguable that no horse should ever be as short as 6-4 for the first colts’ Classic. It is hardly surprising that, with the exception of George Washington two years ago, you have to go back to Zafonic in 1993 to find the last favourite to win the 2000 Guineas.

Raven’s Pass has a chance, although he would have had a better chance if the rain hadn’t come at all, Stimulation has a chance, although the drying ground is against him, Perfect Stride has a chance, Ibn Khaldun has a chance, but the value of the race for me at 10-1 is the Aidan O’Brien-trained Henrythenavigator. He is the forgotten horse of the race.

The Kingmambo colt was installed as Guineas favourite after he won the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot last summer. You can easily forgive him his only two runs since – one behind New Approach in the Futurity Stakes at The Curragh – as they were both on really soft ground. He will be much better suited by the good ground on Saturday, he is almost guaranteed to stay the distance (he won over seven furlongs on his racecourse debut last year and he is out of Moyglare Stakes winner and Irish Oaks fourth Sequoyah) and he is from a yard that has sent out two of the last three Guineas winners.

It could be a big weekend for Ballydoyle, as Kitty Matcham looks over-priced at 12-1 for the 1000 Guineas on Sunday. The daughter of Guineas winner Rock Of Gibraltar didn’t win her maiden until last October, but she followed up by landing the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket – a race that has been won by the last two 1000 Guineas winners Speciosa and Finsceal Beo – in taking fashion on her final start. She is immaculately bred, out of Irish Guineas and Oaks winner Imagine, and the vibes emanating from Ballydoyle about her are encouraging.

Tóg aire.

Categories: Horse racing