Castle chance
February 27th, 2010 by Donn McCleanKilcrea Castle, Racing Post Chase? Big chance. He looked like a potential Racing Post Chase horse when he finished third to The Sawyer in a two-mile-five-and-a-half-furlong handicap chase at Ascot last time. He travelled well in that race, he jumped well and he looked a real threat to The Sawyer rounding the home turn, but lack of a recent run seemed to tell in the home straight, and he couldn’t sustain his effort, surrendering second place to Miss Mitch on the run-in.
Dig a little deeper. He was an exciting novice chaser for Pat Doyle two seasons ago, he finished second to Pomme Tiepy in the Woodlands Park Chase and he finished second to Pomme Tiepy in the Ten Up Chase, both three-mile novice chases, both Grade 2 races, both run on soft ground. He ran a cracker to finish second to Casey Jones in a three-mile handicap chase at Punchestown in October on his last start for Doyle, after which he was off the track for four months. His Ascot run was his first for Emma Lavelle, and he just seemed to lack match practice, but the experience and the run should have put him spot on for whatever was next. Turns out, what’s next is the Racing Post Chase today.
A couple more things on that Ascot run for a second. The Sawyerwon his next race off a 4lb higher mark, then ran a cracker to finish third behind Monet’s Garden in the Ascot Chase, with the result that he is now rated 18lb higher than he was when he beat Kilcrea Castle by two lengths. Kilcrea Castle races off a 1lb higher mark today. He was due to meet Miss Mitch on 2lb better terms for a two-length beating today, but she was lame this morning so she is out of the race. That’s one less to beat, but it would have been surprising if he wouldn’t have improved enough to have her measure this time anyway. (Easy to say now, I know.)
When you bet ante post, you are effectively betting a double: the horse to run and the horse to win. You need both legs to go in before you can collect. Kilcrea Castle was entered in the three-mile chase at Wincanton last Saturday, so he didn’t look like a definite intended runner in today’s race until all the 20/1 had been taken, a blue line appeared on Oddschecker and the best you could have got was 14/1. Then he was taken out of the Wincanton race, which was beaten by the weather anyway, and it was all roads to Kempton.
Even when you see the money, even when it looks like he is an intended runner, there are still crocodiles lurking. Big Fella Thanks shaped like an intended runner in today’s race, but he wasn’t even entered at the five-day stage. Possol shaped like an intended runner, but the ground scuppered that one and he wasn’t declared on Thursday. Miss Mitch shaped like an intended runner, but, as above, she was lame this morning, so she’s out.
Nacarat and Madison Du Berlais set a fair standard, they both love Kempton and the race generally favours highweights (nine of the last 10 winners carried 10st 13lb or more, three of the last six carried 11st 12lb). However, the ground is rarely as soft for the Racing Post Chase as it is probably going to be today, and that may just make it difficult for those at the top of the handicap.
Fistral Beach will be popular, but he is 4lb out of the handicap, there is a chance that he doesn’t truly stay three miles on soft ground, and Ruby Walsh will be going without supper this evening if he is intent on doing 10st. Razor Royale is an interesting runner who will be a decent price, but Kilcrea Castle is a classy individual who is potentially a fair bit better than his handicap mark. He will love the soft ground, he goes well right-handed, he should stay the distance, he jumps well and it looks like he has been trained for the race. The 5/1 that you can get about Kilcrea Castle still looks big.
Let’s hope we get the first leg of the double up at least.
* For more of Donn’s thoughts visit www.donnmcclean.com.
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Categories: Horse racing Irish Racing
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