National dilemma

My Grand National shortlist just got longer. That’s what the publication of the weights does to you, focuses your attention and makes you do some research, the inevitable result of which is the formation of opinions.

Slight digression: I’m dammed if I can figure out the methodology behind the framing of the weights. It’s a perennial thing at this stage, why can’t every horse run off its correct handicap mark, why does Albertas Run have 5lb less to carry just because it is the Grand National than he would have to carry if he was running in the Scottish National or the Eider Chase or the Midlands National, why are some horses allotted higher ratings to increase the chance that they will get a run (doesn’t that mean that other horses’ chances of getting a run are decreased, and in what way is that fair?), why is Irish Invader’s Grand National mark 5lb higher than his Irish mark and 10lb higher than the mark off which he ran last year, when he finished 11th, beaten over 40 lengths, despite the fact that he hasn’t run since? He’s well named.

So the shortlist then. (I have concluded, there is no benefit in trying to figure out the methodology, it’s a fruitless exercise, it appears that there is no right answer anyway and, even if you did happen upon a formula, where’s the reward?) Much better to sit down with the results of the tinkering (the actual weights) and try to figure out what might win it. Alphabetically:

Backstage, lovely horse, struck me as a National type when he won at Ffos Las last August, a prolific point-to-point winner who is trained by Gordon Elliott, as sharp a trainer as they make, who won the National a couple of years ago with Silver Birch, and who has been training this fellow for the National since last summer at least. 11st should be fine as long as one of the top weights run and keep the weights as they are. The worry is that he is just an eight-year-old. The National is still a mature horse’s race. Only Bindaree in 2002 has won the race for eight-year-olds in the last 16 years.

Big Fella Thanks, another eight-year-old, which is well against him, but he ran a cracker in the race last year as a seven-year-old (far too young) when he finished sixth behind Mon Mome. Bizarrely, he has been dropped 3lb for his latest run, when he was giving Duc De Regniere a race at Kempton over an inadequate two miles and five furlongs only to unseat at the second last, so he is 3lb lower for this year’s National as a stronger eight-year-old than he was as a seven-year-old last year.

Black Apalachi, winner of the Becher Chase in 2008, he was travelling really well when he unseated at Becher’s second time last year. He is a little old at 11, but it’s not an insurmountable age. He is only 1lb higher than he was last year and he has been trained for the race.

That’s all the Bs. Add in Don’t Push It, a classy individual who stays well and who won a handicap chase on the Mildmay track at the Grand National meeting last year, but who may be high enough in the weights on 11st 5lb; Iris De Balme, the 2008 Scottish National winner who shaped with a lot of promise over hurdles at Wetherby 10 days ago on his first run for almost two years and who is on a lovely weight of 10st 6lb as things stand; Kilcrea Castle, an interesting recruit to the Emma Lavelle yard who also ran promisingly at Ascot last time on his first run for his new trainer and who is bred to stay well; Mon Mome, who won the race by 12 lengths last year and is 7lb higher, a 10-year-old who has been trained specifically for the race this year, as opposed to last year, when the National was just another race for him; Niche Market, the Irish National winner, although it is a worry that the intention is for him to have two or three more runs between now and 10th April; Possol, another who is being trained for the race, winning two novice hurdles this term, but who is only seven and who has been awarded a harsh enough mark of 151; and Snowy Morning, third to Comply Or Die in 2008 as an eight-year-old and now back down to a mark that is just 2lb higher than the mark off which he raced then.

Admittedly, it’s a fairly long list for a shortlist, and you have to accept the possibility that, the National being what it is, the winner is not even in there. There are a number of key decisions for the whittling-down process, not least, can you continue to discount horses who are set to carry more than 11st, given that the first four home last year all carried 11st or more, and the second and third carried 11st 6lb and 11st 4lb? Could it be that the tinkering with the weights is finally changing the shape of the race? That the highweights are not as disadvantaged any more on goodish ground, given that the classier horses are running in the race and that the bottom weight could be as high as 10st 6lb or 10st 7lb?

Conclusions anon.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Categories: Horse racing