Totesport myths
February 11th, 2010 by Donn McCleanFive myths about Saturday’s Totesport Trophy:
Myth 1: A two-mile handicap hurdle, with about 127 runners and 26lb between top and bottom weight, sponsored by a bookmaker, which was won in 2007 by a 50/1 shot, it is a bookmakers’ benefit gig.
Perhaps surprisingly, it isn’t really. True, Heathcote’s win three years ago was a bit of a thunder cloud in the Sahara, but excepting that one, the race is generally won by a fairly well-fancied runner. Four of the last eight winners were priced at 15/2 or shorter and, excepting Heathcote, you have to go back to Within The Law in 1979 to find the last winner who was sent off at greater than 16/1. It is actually a punters’ race.
Myth 2: Nicky Henderson has been responsible for four of the last 10 winners of the race, so his Spirit River, the choice of Barry Geraghty, is the one to be on.
Not so fast. When Geos won the race for Henderson in 2000, most clued-in observers, including the trainer himself and a lot of the clued-in observers at Seven Barrows, thought that Mick Fitzgerald was mad to choose to ride him instead of Blue Royal. (In fairness, most clued-in observers had a point, as Blue Royal was only beaten four lengths by Istabraq in the Champion Hurdle a month later.) When Geos won it again in 2004 with Marcus Foley on board, there wasn’t much to choose for many between the winner and another Henderson horse Saintsaire, despite the fact that the latter was 5lb out of the handicap. Conclusion – don’t discount the other Nicky Henderson representatives, Stravinsky Dance, First Point and Fairyland.
Myth 3: Gary Moore has won the last two renewals of the race, so take Harry Tricker’s chance seriously.
Half-true. Don’t forget Numide.
Myth 4: Philip Hobbs has never won the race, it is a race that he simply doesn’t target, so you can easily discount his runners.
Again, dig a little deeper. It is true that Philip Hobbs has never won it, but it is not true that it is not a race that he targets, if you follow the double negative. He has actually run 15 horses in the race in the last 10 years, and eight of them have been placed. That is the same number of placed horses as Nicky Henderson has had from around half the number of runners. Moreover, while the Henderson factor in the Totesport Trophy is well known, and almost certainly factored into prices by bookmakers, there is no premium to pay for Philip Hobbs horses. Don’t discount the chances of Ring The Boss or Oldrik too readily.
Myth 5: The race used to be called the Schweppes.
Shhhh … that one is true.
* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.
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Categories: Horse racing Irish Racing
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