Lee is sharp

We all know that horses win races, not jockeys. We all know that a fridge would have won the Guineas on Nijinsky while not even God Almighty himself would have got Chateau Elan home in the 1999 Punchestown Charity Race. Okay, so maybe Ruby Walsh would have, or AP McCoy, or any 7lb claimer who could have done a little more than sit tight and steer, but that’s not the point.

Most jockeys will win most races when they are on the best horse. By the same token, there are few circumstances in which a jockey will win a race when he or she is not on the best horse, relative to the total number of circumstances, if you follow. Even so, jockeys are important, possibly even more important in National Hunt races than in flat races, and it isn’t just the finish that’s important. The finish is the part of the race that gets the headlines, the visible part, the strength-in-a-finish part, the part that brings the armchair jockeys out. However, the sum total of what has gone before in a race is much more important than the final two furlongs. You would never have caught Robert Earnshaw engaging in a McCoy kitchen-sink drive to the line, yet he continued to ride some of the best Dickinson horses because he was such a consummate horseman, because of his value before strength-in-a-finish ever became an issue.

There is a huge sense of unease about watching a race and knowing that the horse that you have backed is not where you think he should be, too wide or too far back or chasing too fast a pace or not settled. You know, for instance, that when you back a horse that will be ridden by Ruby Walsh or AP McCoy that you are very unlikely to suffer that sense of frustration. The downside is that you pay for it in terms of the odds that you are getting about a Walsh or a McCoy horse. It is difficult to know the magnitude of it, but there is no doubt that you are paying a portion of your odds for Ruby or AP. Paul Townend is another rider who falls into that category, but for whom you don’t have to pay so dearly in terms of odds. Barry Geraghty is another.

Graham Lee is another. You are not paying much of a premium for Graham Lee, but he is up there with the best of them in my book. He is a quiet rider, like Walsh and Townend, you rarely see him in the wrong place in a race, usually tight against the inside rail. If you see him out wide, you know that the ground is probably appreciably better out there. He allows his horses find their way into the race without bullying them.

He rode two winners at Doncaster last Saturday, Watch My Back and Calgary Bay. It is easy to say that a ride was good when the horse has won, but both of these were typical Lee rides, quietly quietly out the back before making ground at the right time and pouncing. I backed Pop in Watch My Back’s race, and who knows, he may well have won had he not come down at the third last, but he might not have, Watch My Back won with such authority in the end.

I did back Calgary Bay – he is probably one of my lemming horses (ref last week’s lemming horses note) – but I don’t think I would have if Lee hadn’t been riding him. The rider can add a lot, especially to a horse like Calgary Bay who was in dire need of a confidence boost. Again, Lee was quietly quietly out the back on the rail, he moved a little wide going down the far side final time, made his ground steadily, came there easily on the outside over the second last and won easily. Perhaps significantly, it was the first time that Lee had ridden the horse since he contested his first novices’ hurdle at Market Rasen more than two years ago.

I haven’t given up on Calgary Bay as a potential top class staying chaser just yet. The handicapper has raised him 11lb for this, but his new mark of 153 could still under-estimate his ability. Handicaps may be a thing of the past for him anyway, and he will be interesting again wherever he goes next – hopefully Lee will be on board again.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Categories: Horse racing