Chapo second chance
December 12th, 2009 by Donn McCleanHere’s a quandary. You back a horse, you figure that he is value at the price, he goes well, he travels, all is going swimmingly until the first fence down the back straight, when a horse jumps in front of him and he comes down, money lost.
Four weeks later, the same horse is set to run in a similar race. (Have you guessed what it is yet?) Same type of race, same track, more or less the same distance, similar class of opposition, similar ground, same handicap rating, same jockey, similar price. Do you back him again? Do you run the risk of following this horse over this cliff, lemming-like (we all have lemming horses), or do you take a pull and say no way, not this time. Once bitten.
Of course, as long as there are no material changes, you back him again. If you thought that Chapoturgeon was value at 7/1 for the Paddy Power, then you have to think that he is value at 13/2 for the Boylesports this afternoon. Often, there are material changes. Often the horse’s performance on his previous run betrays something about him that you didn’t know before, that he doesn’t jump well, or doesn’t stay, or doesn’t handle the track or the ground. If his performance last time provided you with more positive information, of course, it is unlikely that you will be able to back him at the same price.
We learned nothing new about Chapoturgeon in the Paddy Power. He was travelling well and he was jumping well before Tranquil Sea jumped across him at the first fence in the back straight, knocked him sideways, and effectively knocked him to the ground. Knockout blow. He is still a horse who is overflowing with potential. He could still be well ahead of the handicapper on a mark of 153. We simply don’t know that he isn’t.
He is obviously well enough for Paul Nicholls to allow him take his chance again today, and it is arguable that today’s race is not as good as the Paddy Power looked before it was run. There are a couple of horses who could be ahead of the handicapper in there but, besides Chapoturgeon, Atouchbetweenacara is the only one who really could be as good as Tranquil Sea over the distance, and he is up 19lb for winning at Cheltenham’s April meeting. Also, he is bidding to become the first horse in an eon to win the race on his seasonal debut.
I’ve backed Chapoturgeon again. One more chance.
* For more of Donn’s thoughts visit www.donnmcclean.com
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Categories: Horse racing
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