Ascot draw

There mustn’t have been a draw bias on the straight course at Ascot last week so.  There can’t have been.  The television guys said there wasn’t.  If there was a bias, they said, there was only a bias because the jockeys believed that there was a bias, and the bias was created by the jockeys acting in such a way as to negate the disadvantage that they thought they were going to suffer because of the bias, thus creating the bias.  Capiche?  Even Kevin Darley had a go at the jockeys.  “Sheep,” he said, and he was one until very recently.

Actually, while you can’t be dogmatic about these things, the balance of probability suggests that there was a bias, a significant one, in favour of those who were drawn low, those who raced towards the stands side, at least on the first four days. 

Here is the empirical data.  On Tuesday, the first three home in the Queen Anne were drawn three, one and two respectively, and all three raced towards the stands side.  The winner of the King’s Stand, Scenic Blast, was drawn in stall 15 and raced in the centre of the track, but he is a monster, and the second and third were drawn one and two and raced stands side.  The Coventry winner was drawn in stall nine, but raced near side, while the Windsor Castle winner was drawn in stall 16, but raced towards the near side, and he was followed home by horses drawn two, four and five.

There were four races with 13 runners or more run on the straight course in Wednesday.  The four winners were drawn three, one, one and four respectively.  The first three home in the 27-runner Royal Hunt Cup were drawn in stalls one, five and four respectively, with the winner on the far side finishing ninth overall, 10 lengths behind the winner on the near side.  The first three home in the 13-runner Queen Mary were drawn in stalls one, four and three.

On Thursday, the winner of the Norfolk, Radiohead, was drawn in stall six, but he raced up the near rail and won the race despite getting badly hampered a furlong out.  The first four home in the only other race run on the straight track, the Britannia Handicap, were admittedly drawn 15, 13, 30 and 29.  This race is the cornerstone of the argument for no bias.  But the first two, Fareer and Secret Society, raced with the near side group, and both of them came from the back – they were actually disputing last place overall with two furlongs to run – so there is a good chance that the early pace all over the track was too strong in the Britannia.

Normal service was resumed on Friday.  The first two home in the Albany were drawn 10 and six and raced near side, while the first four home in the 29-runner Buckingham Palace were drawn four, two, 10 and seven.  I’m not sure what was going on with the draw on Saturday, but there was definitely something mysterious.  Some onlookers suggested that the course executive watered the near side more than the far side in advance of Saturday’s card in order to negate the draw bias, which, of course, didn’t exist.  This was denied by the racecourse executive, but there was some reason why only nine of the 26 runners in the Wokingham came near side, despite the fact that they were falling over each other to come near side from high draws from Tuesday to Friday.

I’m not sure why people feel the need to jump up and down and exclaim that there is no draw bias when it is probable (admittedly not definite) that there is.  Perhaps there is a perception that they are having a go at the racecourse executive if they point to a draw bias.  That is not necessarily the case.  There was universal approval for the state of the ground all week, common consensus was that the clerk of the course had done a fantastic job, and he and his team are to be applauded for that.  So if there is a bias, or the probability of a bias, for whatever reason, why not call it as it is?  Nobody tries to claim there is no draw bias at Chester or Beverley.

So what does all of this mean?  I will be studying the videos this week in order to try to pinpoint the horses who ran well from a high draw.  For starters, there is Scenic Blast.  The Aussie broke from stall 15 and demolished his King’s Stand rivals from the centre of the track.  Whatever beats him in the July Cup will surely win it.  Also, Lesson In Humility ran a cracker in the centre of the track in the Golden Jubilee.  They are talking about running her next in the Summer Stakes at York on 10th July, and she will take some beating in that, back against her own sex.

More anon.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com

ENDS

Categories: Horse racing Irish Racing