Let one’s games begin
June 15th, 2009 by Donn McCleanHow do you think HRH feels when she goes through the golden gates at the top of the straight mile and starts the Royal amble down past her cheering subjects? The 1970s it ain’t, and the monarchy has been through the tumultuous mill and out the other side, no question, but the track will be flanked for a couple of furlongs at least and the hands will be clapped and all manoeuvring will be stunted until such time as one is out of the carriage and safely ensconced on one’s Royal Balcony. (I think all things Royal get a capital.) You have to admire her though, really, and her penchant for racing. Helen Mirren did more for one’s image than any spin doctor could have.
“Okay, here we go again, one’s sunny side out.” You have to wonder, has one gone through the card in the morning and put the Hannon horse away in the Coventry, or is one on Lilac at 13/2 with Paddy Power? I saw a carriage-drawing horse that just about got the mile last year, and I’ll be laying him for a place tomorrow for sure.
It’s a peculiar place, Royal Ascot. It’s a bit like the picture of the seagulls. Which way are they flying? Are they black and flying east, or are they white and flying west? Does the racing get in the way of the fashion or does the fashion take from the racing? Depends on your perspective. You can be doing without the top hat and tails for starters. It’s a trade off. If you don’t wear them, you can’t get into the Royal Enclosure. The bowler-hatted men will see to that. “Excuse me sir, are you lost?” (No kiddin’.) If you do, you go about sweltering for the day and dreaming of the time you can get back to your room and put on your jeans, debating staying for the Windsor Castle or high-tailing it out of there and watching the review in the evening instead. This year, I will be watching from my office in a pair of jeans and a t-shirt, and I’m looking forward to it lots.
One of the most interesting races from a betting perspective for me is the curtain-raiser, the Queen Anne Stakes, simply because there are reasons for taking on the top three in the market. Gladiatorus was, as the USAns might say, awesome, in the Dubai Duty Free, as a result of which he is the top-rated horse in the world. However, this is his first run since, his first since returning from Dubai, his first for Godolphin. His lung-bursting performances have been around a bend, he has to go from the front, it is the only way he knows, and the stiff straight mile at Ascot may just present a challenge for him that he won’t be able to meet. Also, capable rider though Ahmed Ajtebi is, ideally he would have Dettori’s assistance. Finally, if everything was right with him, surely he would be a 5/4 shot, not a 5/2 shot?
Paco Boy is a really doubtful stayer – we have enough evidence to conclude now that he is a specialist seven-furlong horse who will not be at his best over a stiff straight mile in which they are almost certain to go 100 miles an hour from get-go – as is Main Aim. Michael Stoute’s colt was really a six-furlong horse (the Golden Jubilee was his Royal Ascot race, he wasn’t even entered in this) before he won over seven furlongs at Haydock last time, and that form received a fair boost when the runner-up Beacon Lodge went and won a Group 3 contest at Chantilly yesterday, but that Haydock race was run at a sedate early pace, it didn’t put a premium on stamina at all, and he is stepping up another furlong tomorrow and taking on a stiffer track. He may well stay, he is an exciting individual and he will be a big player if he does, but for me you have to take him on at no better than 9/2 and 100/30 in a place.
As a result of all of this, both Aqlaam and Alexandros are well over-priced in my book at 11/1 and 8/1 respectively. Aqlaam was really good at this meeting last year in landing the Jersey Stakes, and his homework has apparently been very good in the lead up to this, while Alexandros was the moral winner of the Lockinge Stakes, and will have Dettori for company in a race that Godolphin have won three times in the last six years.
Let the games begin.
* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com
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Categories: Horse racing Irish Racing
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