First, a brief note on value, one of the most over-utilised terms in betting, and one of the main determinants of long-term profitability or loss, as the case may be.
A value price about an outcome occurring is not necessarily a big price, although it can be. It is simply a price that is greater than the true price, which is a reflection of the probability of a given outcome of a given event. At its simplest, the probability of tails coming up in the toss of a fair coin is 0.5, which is reflected in true odds of 1-1, or even money. If you could back tails at 11-10 or 6-5, or anything better than even money, that is a bet that you should have. You may lose on one individual toss of the coin, but in the long run, in a hundred tosses, or a thousand tosses, you will show a profit.
Of course the difficulty with horse racing is that nobody knows for sure what the true odds are of a horse winning a race. The odds that are returned are simply a function of opinions and market forces. However, if you can consistently back horses at longer odds than what their true respective odds are in your opinion, and if your opinion is accurate, then in the long run you will show a profit. That, after all, is the objective.
Final point on value. Don’t be fooled into fitting value retrospectively. Don’t think that a horse was great value at 2-1 after he has won. He may well have been, but value can only be assessed on the information that you have prior to an event. Just because tails has come up does not mean that it was value at 4-6 before the toss.
So where is the value in Saturday afternoon’s Scottish Grand National? Not easy. These mature ante post markets are tough because you have been looking at the race all week and a lot of the value has been nicked by Friday evening. The presence of Halcon Genelardais at the top of the weights means that only three horses will get to compete off their correct handicap marks. A startling anomaly. It is possible to win the Scottish National from out of the handicap, as Joes Edge and Baronet proved in the last 10 years, but it is not easy.
It looks like Joes Edge’s trainer, Ferdy Murphy, has laid out Noir Et Vert for this from a long time ago. Murphy won the race last year as well with Hot Weld, and Noir Et Vert went onto the shortlist when he finished fourth to High Chimes in the Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham on his first run this season. He is only seven years old, he has only run in six chases in his life, he is most progressive, and a handicap rating of 130 looked decidedly lenient. It looked like a well thought-out plan. However, Alan King may have scuppered it by leaving Halcon Genelardais in the race, as Noir Et Vert is 13lb out of the handicap as a result. He may well win it still, but his price of 10-1 looks just about right now.
Halcon Genelardais himself may be overlooked by many as he has such a big weight, but Ayr is not as tough for the highweights as a lot of other courses, and Grey Abbey and Young Kenny in the last 10 years proved that it can be done. Halcon Genelardais himself almost carried top weight to victory in the Welsh National in December on desperate ground, and he is interesting at best odds of 8-1. Patsy Hall is also interesting at 10-1 from just 2lb out of the handicap after running so well in the William Hill Chase at Cheltenham, when lack of a recent run probably told on the run-in.
Most interesting of all, however, may be the other Alan King horse Old Benny, also from just 2lb out of the handicap, with his stable companion keeping the weights down. A decent staying novice this season, he relished the step up in trip when he landed the four-miler at the Cheltenham Festival last month. He looks most progressive, a seven-year-old who has raced over fences just four times in his life. He will love the trip, the ease in the ground will suit well, he has a good man on his back in Richard Johnson and a mark of 141 may still underestimate his ability. The fancy prices have gone, but current odds of 6-1 are more than fair.
Donn.
